This could well be a document that makes me famous or considered to be a heretic. However, this is one scenario for afficionades of the scenario approach.
The oil price and the concomitant impact on transport costs, together with the "green" process in relation to global warming, could quite likely see a large impact on globalisation in the medium term. Transport costs are a major part in the globalisation decision making processes. So what if the oil price keeps escalating? Could it not result in a slow down in the globalisation process. If it is too expensive then surely we will start to revert to old practices?
If so, will this not lead to an increase in the role of SMEs in local economies as SMEs scale up and/or large businesses scale down to meet the market demand in a smaller market?
Is the situation not further exacerbated by the lack of market sophistication in the African markets? Will this not create a lot of opportunities in the African continent? Will Africa be able to convert opportunities into wealth?
I would welcome input on this topic. I know that I am recommending that this scenario be part of strategic planning for the next 10 years. I enjoy good debate so let us have it.
Rob Smorfitt
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Rob Smorfitt
(Visit Rob's Website)
Based in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
Married with 3 children (22, 21 and 14).
Have an MBA and am currently doing a PhD
in entrepreneurial success. I have been
self employed since 1982. I have started
26 and bought 5 businesses since then.
Most were sold again and a few were shut
down because of a lack of profitability.
Many were run by staff or family while I
worked in full time employment in my
bigger businesses. 6 books written in SME
and Project Management educational field.
Written articles for various magazines,
newspapers and websites.
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