Although it can be useful to consider Africa as a whole, there is considerable variation in human and economic development within the continent. Table 3 provides alternative rankings of African countries based on their HDIs and GDP per capita. What is striking about the table is that the same countries are in the top third of both lists. In many ways, these countries should be analysed separately from the others on the continent. They include the North African countries bordering the Mediterranean, South Africa and some smaller states. They are typically classified as having medium (and in some cases, high) human development by UNDP and as being middle income countries by the World Bank. The remaining two thirds of the countries are classified as having low human development and (in the main) low incomes. However, the rankings of the poorest performing two-thirds of countries differ substantially according to whether the HDI or GDP per capita is used. Some countries with very low GDP per capita (Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Tanzania, Zambia) are in the middle of the list ranked by the HDI. Others (Djibouti, Guinea, Senegal, Uganda) are in the middle third ranked by income, but not by human development. This suggests that even given their incomes, countries have some discretion over their degree of human development: some, such as Tanzania prior to 1980, may promote health and education; others may neglect it. However, the variation also reflects the fact that the flow of income can vary more in the short term than the stock of literate adults and the health status of the population. Consequently, some countries (eg Democratic Republic of Congo) may have high HDI figures relative to income because of marked economic decline rather than good social sector policies. Others (eg Uganda since 1987) may benefit from economic recovery for some time before its legacy of poor human development can be overcome. However, for further analysis it is useful to disaggregate the components of the HDI. Although the components are strongly correlated across African countries, there are some striking divergences in performance. Malawi has much better educational indicators than one would expect from its low income, but lower life expectancy.
Life expectancy varies markedly across the continent. Although it is typically around 50 years, in eight countries it exceeds the world average of 63 years. Life expectancy in Africa is more strongly correlated with GDP per capita than either adult literacy rates or gross educational enrolments. However, some countries have very different life expectancy from what one would predict given their incomes.
The two least developed African countries (for whom there is data) - Rwanda and Sierra Leone - are reported to have exceptionally low life expectancies at birth (23 and 34 respectively). Uganda also has a much lower life expectancy than one would predict given its income. Although this partly reflects the legacy of civil war and the onset of AIDS, much can be explained by its relatively low public spending on health. Botswana also has a much lower life expectancy - at 52, it is 13 years lower than one would predict given its income4. It could perhaps learn from nearby Lesotho, where life expectancy is nine years higher than would be expected from its income alone.
Literacy rates vary enormously across the continent from less than 20% in Niger and Burkina Faso to over 80% in Mauritius, the Seychelles, South Africa and Zimbabwe. School enrolment statistics exhibit almost as much variation. Some countries have achieved almost universal primary education; in others - notably the Sahelian countries - only a minority of children ever attend school.
Variations in income per capita can explain 59% of the variation in combined educational enrolments.
However, Southern African countries (with the exceptions of Angola, Botswana and Mozambique)
have noticeably higher enrolment rates than would be expected given their income, whilst many countries bordering the Sahara desert tend to have lower than expected enrolment rates. Gender inequalities also vary considerably across African countries. Inequalities are less marked in countries with high overall rates of literacy and enrolments, but variation persists even controlling for that.
The variation in human development within Africa is also marked in respect to trends since 1960.
Although on average life expectancy increased by 12 years in the continent, for some - eg the Maghreb countries - the increase was around twenty years whilst in Uganda and Rwanda, life expectancy actually fell. Burundi, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe experienced only very modest improvements. All African countries have made substantial gains in adult literacy since 1970. However, since 1980, trends in educational enrolments have diverged considerably. In eleven of the forty-two countries for which there is data, combined educational enrolments fell between 1980 and 1994, whilst in many others there were strong gains.
Human Capital and Economic Development Simon Appleton and Francis Teal
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