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African Economic Performance in 2004: A Promise of Things to Come?

 
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African Economic Performance in 2004: A Promise of Things to Come?
   

Growth in Africa: Best Performance in Years Africa is currently experiencing its best economic performance in many years. The continent’s economies are benefiting from global expansion, notably through higher demand for commodities at higher prices; improved domestic macroeconomic management; and the easing of conflicts in many countries. While serious problems persist – including the humanitarian catastrophe in western Sudan, the political hardening in Zimbabwe, and conflicts in Côte d’Ivoire – prospects for much of Africa appear to remain more favourable than they have been for many years.

The aggregate eight-year high of 5.1 per cent growth in 2004 masks striking divergences at country levels. Surges in oil and metal prices, the dollar depreciation, record low cotton prices, and a locust plague in the Sahel region, affected individual countries differently.

The global economic recovery and the general rise in global commodity prices gave a positive impetus to African oil and metal exports. Some oil exporters also benefited from new oil fields in Southern and Central Africa (Angola, Chad and Equatorial Guinea). However, West African countries are facing losses from lower prices for cotton and cocoa.

The sharp euro appreciation has adversely affected the Franc Zone countries, while the strengthening of the rand has affected the Southern African economies whose currencies are pegged to it.

Africa benefited from the rise in official aid in the last three years, although much of the increase was due to emergency assistance and debt relief. Good performers, such as Ethiopia, Mozambique and Tanzania, accounted for the bulk of aid; conversely, aid to Zimbabwe and the Central African Republic has decreased considerably, reflecting mounting governance problems. Despite rising aid levels, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

remain underfinanced (by more than $40 billion, overall)

and progress on most of the eight goals set for 2015 remains limited (see table).

Favourable weather conditions in Eastern, Central, and Southern African translated in a rebound in agricultural production (mainly in Ethiopia, Malawi, Zambia and Rwanda). In contrast, agricultural output in West Africa suffered from locust infestation, although its impact was limited by early treatment of infested areas.

Prudent macroeconomic policies have helped economic recovery. Inflation has reached overall historical lows, despite increasing oil prices. Low world-wide inflation benefited countries with pegged exchange rates, such as CFA franc countries, while prudent monetary policy played a key role in an increasing number of floating-rate countries. The windfall gains from commodity prices have improved public finances in oil-exporting countries.

African Economic Performance in 2004:

A Promise of Things to Come?

by Nicolas Pinaud and Lucia Wegner Policy Insights No. 6 is derived from the African Economic Outlook 2004/2005, a joint publication of the African Development Bank and the OECD Development Centre To learn more about this author, visit OECD Development Centre's Website.

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OECD Development Centre
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Created in 1962 by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris, the Development Centre is an interface between OECD Member countries and the emerging and developing economies. The Development Centre occupies a unique place within the OECD and in the international community. It is a forum where countries come to share their experience of economic and social development policies. The Centre contributes expert analysis to the development policy debate. The objective is to help decision makers find policy solutions to stimulate growth and improve living conditions in developing and emerging economies.
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