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Picking Warren Buffett’s Brain: Notes from a Novice

Written by: Timothy Ferriss

Article Overview: “Excuse me. Where is the most difficult to reach microphone?” I was out of breath from running up the steps but had managed to find one of the microphone stands, manned by two headset-wearing volunteers. More than 10,000 people had waited on the sidewalks overnight to be first in the doors of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting, and I had made a choice: I would go for the mics instead of the front row.

Picking Warren Buffett’s Brain: Notes from a Novice

“Excuse me. Where is the most difficult to reach microphone?”

I was out of breath from running up the steps but had managed to find one of the microphone stands, manned by two headset-wearing volunteers.

More than 10,000 people had waited on the sidewalks overnight to be first in the doors of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting, and I had made a choice: I would go for the mics instead of the front row.

Given a choice of shaking Warren Buffett’s hand for a five-second photo op or asking him a question, I opted for the latter, and in ten seconds, I’d be sprinting to the corner of the top floor. After all, lunch with Buffett once auctioned off for $620,100, and I’d planned it all out.

These are my notes on what happened and what I learned…

“Can you please radio ahead to put my name on their list until I get there to confirm?” I pleaded, explaining that this was the main reason I had traveled from SF all the way to Omaha, Nebraska.

They smiled: “Sure thing.”

There were 13 mics total and time for approximately six questions from each, for a total of 78 people out of the 31,000 who now packed the Qwest Convention Center like a rock concert. I ended up, only 10 minutes after the doors had opened, number 5 at mic #6. When the spotlight swung over to blind me a few minutes before the lunch break, I was ready to consult the Oracle.

“Good afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger…” my voice boomed out through the sound system with a half-second delay, making it almost impossible to remember my lines, memorized word-for-word. I continued:

“If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time investing, how would you invest your first million dollars, assuming that you can cover 18 months of expenses with other savings? Thank you in advance for being as specific as possible with asset classes and allocation percentage.”

Buffett let out a small laugh and began. “I’d put it all in a low-cost index fund that tracks the S&P 500 and get back to work…”

[Postscript: Be sure to see some of the great reader answers to this question in the comments after this post.]
An MBA in a Weekend

As several veterans put it to me before the pilgrimage, “it’s like an MBA in a weekend.” I thought this was hyperbole and hero worship, but I would now take it further: I think it’s one weekend that delivers more than most MBAs. Real-world strategies culled from experience? Check. Networking? Big-time check. The only thing the mecca of Buffett seemed to lack was the $100K+ price tag.

Here are my non-linear notes from my exchange with Buffett (B) and Munger (M), as well as the rest of my first Berkshire Hathaway (BH) experience, including conversations in the hallways with some incredible portfolio company managers. Treat each line as a separate observation except for the answers following bolded questions.

Their continued answer to my question:

“…Put it all in a low-cost index fund like a Vanguard 500.” M: “Professionals take croupier profits out of the system. No one will give you this advice [index funds] because no one gets paid for it.” M: “The whole secret of successful investing [full-timers] is non-diversification. If you know nothing —> diversity.” B: “There are situations, for the full-time investor, where it’d be a mistake not to invest 50% of your net worth in one business.” If more aggressive: small stocks and specialized bonds, but no currencies.

Best books to read for investing and life?
—-
(B) Chapters 8 and 20 in The Intelligent Investor. (M) Anything by Ben Franklin.

Use the market to serve you, not to instruct you.

What’s being taught in current MBA programs that shouldn’t be?
—-
Option pricing, etc. There are only three courses you need: how to value a business, how to think about market fluctuations, and how to communicate well. There is a great desire of the priesthood [in this case, academics] to teach what they know vs. what you need. If you know the bible in four languages, your ego won’t allow you to teach the true essentials, which might be “follow the 10 commandments.”

From CFO of portfolio company on how to select a money manager. Ask: What is your process? How do you make decisions? Given what you’re holding now vs. 3 years ago, can you share an example along those lines? Are you registered with the SEC?

From same CFO: having a short-term focus (2-4 months) or long-term (7 years or so) is good, but intermediate-term is bad (1-2 years). Everyone is looking at information for 1-2 years due to capital gains treatment. Given that I’d be comfortable with a 10% loss in a given year but not 20%, a 55/45 stocks/bonds split with 7-year objectives would be one potential allocation.

Conventional dogma among economists: the stock market is 6 months ahead of the respective economy.

B: “Envy is the worst of the 7 sins. You feel worse and they feel no worse. Gluttony, at least, has some upside.” [said as he opens another box of See’s chocolates]


The letter and goodies waiting in my hotel room upon arriving in Omaha.

Select money market accounts with comparable returns to CD have advantage: can invest in crashed S&P same-day.

B and M have never discussed timing the market, and if they could, they would focus exclusively on S&P 500 futures.

Look for attractively priced businesses, not stocks. Could you remain confident in your choice, in their durable competitive advantage, even if the market were to close for a few years? Imagine that you have a card with room for 20 hole punches, and you can only invest in 20 companies your entire life.

Worry about getting ahead, not galloping ahead.

Purchasing businesses that earn revenue in British Pound Sterling, Euros, or Francs is OK, as those currencies are unlikely to decline vs. $ USD. $ USD will continue to weaken vs. others.

B and M’s job is to retain — not recruit — good managers once they choose an attractive business to purchase. Good management is part of the evaluation of intrinsic value. Chief characteristics: passion, excellent communication skills, and the tendency to always do more than fair share.

If you want to buy or sell a stock, buy or sell it instead of speculating on futures. If you make a call for a cheaper price, the movement will come earlier 4 out of 5 times.

M on charities/nonprofits: if you donate to a group with strong political leanings, you tend to make lots of dumb charitable gifts.

B: Most things I want do not come from the expenditure of money. I have what I need. We do virtually nothing we don’t want to do. Associating with wonderful people is about as good as it gets. Never trade reputation for money.

Berkshire Hathaway (BH) is now targeting companies with a 50B+ market capitalization (market cap) — there are fewer options, the companies are less profitable, and more is required to move the % needle [% growth in BH stock] for shareholders.

M on CEO compensation: If you’re in a job you’d pay to have and are an exemplar for the rest of the organization, there is a lot to be said for paying yourself little. B: “If you rise high enough in American business, you have a moral obligation to take less pay.

“Pair trading” — long and short two stocks in the same industry to hedge losses (BP + Chevron, etc.). Useful in 60’s; less useful now.

Press and media are larger factors in changing bad corp/exec behavior than regulators. Boards respond to bad press.

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Article Tags: asset classes, berkshire hathaway, dependents, first million, front row, full time job, good afternoon, lunch break, mic, microphone, mics, million dollars, mr buffett, munger, omaha nebraska, qwest, sidewalks, small laugh, sure thing, ten seconds



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Growth and more growth This is a genuine growth story. Earnings per share have increased at a 12% annualized rate in the past five years. Neil Currie, a retailing analyst at UBS Securities, believes the company is capable of generating 13% growth in earnings per share in the next few years and an even higher rate if it gets more aggressive in repurchasing shares. The bullish Currie carries a 12-month price target of $66. With large annual buybacks, Costco could earn more than $4 a share in fiscal 2010, Currie estimates. That could support a stock price of $80. The company plans to open 36 to 40 stores in the current fiscal year and about 35 annually in subsequent years. The store base totaled 474 on Dec. 31, including 371 in the United States. Costco says domestic and international markets ultimately can support more than 1,000 stores. Outside the U.S. and Canada, the most promising markets are likely Mexico, the United Kingdom and Japan. Costco's merchandise sales in its most recent fiscal year rose 14% to $59 billion, while membership fees generated $1.2 billion in revenue. This year, sales are expected to rise more than 10%, reflecting lower prices for gasoline. Sales at stores open at least year, a key gauge of retailing success, were up a healthy 8% in fiscal 2006. Could the company be a candidate for a leveraged buyout? Costco does possess some of the key characteristics that private-equity players seek. It has a strong balance sheet, a predictable cash flow and a durable franchise. Its market value is a hefty $26 billion, but LBOs of that size are doable these days. Costco bought back $1.5 billion of stock in its latest fiscal year and $400 million in the quarter that ended Nov. 30. But it has resisted a large debt-financed buyback like the one under way at Home Depot, and to date it hasn't sought to raise funds through the sale of its real estate. The company takes pride in its impressive financial condition. "Have we gotten to the point in America that balance-sheet strength is a negative?" Munger asks.Currie argues that Costco could keep LBO operators at bay by launching a more aggressive buyback program and taking on a moderate level of debt. "The best way for Costco to protect its independence is to have a high multiple on its stock," the analyst says, adding that an augmented buyback would help achieve that goal. He believes Costco comfortably can repurchase $2 billion or more of stock annually. The dividend yield on the stock is a low 0.9%. Most income from members' fees Its cooperativelike operation makes the retailer's business model unusual. In its latest fiscal year, Costco generated pretax income of $1.75 billion, about 70% of which came from membership fees. An additional $125 million was kicked in by the interest income on the company's cash. Costco earned just $400 million from its stores, for a retailing operating margin of less than 1%. The low margin is intentional and reflects the company's commitment to low prices. As a matter of corporate policy, Costco refuses to mark up any product by more than 15% above its cost. When the company signed a new contract in 2005 with a supplier for Brooks Bros.-style men's cotton and button-down shirts, and got a significant price reduction for a massive two-year order, it immediately cut the price of the shirts to $12.99 from $17.99, notes Richard Galanti, Costco's chief financial officer. Other retailers might have phased in the reduction and captured added profit, but that's not the Costco way. The shirts now cost $14.99 because they are made with better-quality cotton. One attraction in the eyes of a potential buyer would be the opportunity to lift margins. Costco leads Sam's Club in most financial measurements, including total sales, sales per store, sales per square foot of retail space and sales per employee. But Sam's operating profit margin of 3.5% tops Costco's 2.8%. Some complaints on Wall Street If Costco were to raise its margins to Sam's level, it would translate into an additional 65 cents a share of net income -- a large amount relative to the current-year consensus estimate of $2.60 a share. Sinegal has talked in the past about lifting Costco's margins to 4%, but little progress has been made. This has led to some criticism on Wall Street. An analyst report in December, after Costco reported its fiscal-first-quarter profits, was entitled "Still No Margin." Galanti says management has no interest in going private. "The public model has worked for us. We have no plans to change," he says. Video: Behind the scenes at Costco Many Costco shareholders are also happy with the current situation. "Costco refuses to be undersold and thinks so long term that the company will not even remotely degrade the value it gives customers, even if it would fuel a healthy increase in margins and earnings and very few customers would notice," says Ken Charles Feinberg, a co-manager of the Davis New York Venture Fund (NYVTX) and Selected American Shares (SLADX), both run by Davis Selected Advisors. "That's how a great management builds a great business franchise that's built to last." The Davis funds are Costco's largest shareholder, with a 12% stake. Feinberg says that Costco's effective valuation is lower than its stated price-earnings ratio because of the company's conservative approach to depreciation. He recently calculated that Costco trades for about 16 times his projection of calendar "owner earnings." This profit measure adds to operating earnings depreciation expense in excess of what is needed to maintain the existing store base. Feinberg believes Costco is a "compelling bargain" for long-term investors. Sinegal doesn't talk much to Wall Street and wasn't available to speak with Barron's. Even at 70, he maintains a grueling schedule. He aims to visit each Costco store twice a year and is about 70% successful in that goal, Galanti says. This means he's on the road 40 to 45 weeks a year. Costco executives jokingly refer to Sinegal's weekly travels as a "death march" because he usually begins each day at 7 a.m. and finishes at 10 p.m. Dressed in sneakers, khaki pants and Costco's now-$14.99 button-down shirts, Sinegal asks store managers what's selling, what's not and how Costco prices compare with the competition. He has no set plans to retire, although he has talked casually about holding the job for five more years. Because he hasn't set a retirement date, there is no heir apparent. But Costco has a strong group of managers who share Sinegal's passion and vision. Unlike most CEOs, Sinegal has no severance or golden parachute in his contract, which runs less than a page. He insists on one-year contracts, believing the Costco board should have the opportunity to evaluate him annually to determine if he's still up to the job. Sinegal's view is that the restrained terms of his contract send an important message to employees. In the view of Berkshire's Munger, one of Costco's great strengths is that its two founders, Sinegal and Brotman, are still active. Brotman, 64, focuses on real estate. "There is no better site acquisitor in the retailing industry," Munger says. "I'd like to see Jeff get more credit. He deserves it." Costco has chosen to focus on more affluent coastal markets; California alone is home to 30% of its stores. Finding sites for new outlets in densely populated areas is one of Brotman's specialties. The company features products that offer its members large cost savings over what they would pay at traditional retailers. The chain carries just 10% of the items in a typical supermarket, which might stock 40,000 products.The formula works. Costco sold 1.5 million TVs last year and has successfully built what it calls ancillary businesses such as prescription drugs and eyeglasses, filling 26 million prescriptions in 2006. Hungry Costco members bought 63 million hot-dog-and-soda combinations last year at in-store snack bars -- priced at only $1.50 and with free soda refills. The dogs are even kosher. Costco's customer-focused strategy is apparent in its 87% membership-renewal rate. The retailer allows returns on nearly all items at any time, with no questions asked; computers are the lone exception. It doesn't even need to see receipts. This liberal policy has proved costly in the past year because the company is seeing returns of an unusually large number of big-screen TVs. Analysts suspect that many members are taking advantage of the sharp drop in TV prices to return models bought in the past 12 months so they can buy new ones at lower cost. Costco said it is evaluating its TV-return policy but emphasizes that no change will be retroactive and that it still plans to maintain the industry's most generous return policy on electronics. Low turnover among employees Workers get a relatively good deal at Costco -- a point of emphasis for the company, which contends it's also a matter of good business. Despite fewer stores, Costco's sales are about 50% above those of Sam's Clubs, and sales per employee are about $500,000 a year versus $340,000 at the Wal-Mart unit, UBS' Currie calculates. Sinegal was asked in a recent Bloomberg TV interview about the company's health-care benefits. Costco provides health insurance to its 93,000 domestic employees and pays 90% of the cost, which runs about $6,000 annually per employee. Video: Behind the scenes at Costco "We're 100% committed to maintaining this program," Sinegal said. "It works for us, and our people count on it. We think they're entitled to that security." Costco has one of the lowest turnover rates in retailing. Among employees who have been with the company for at least a year, just 6% leave annually. That may be because store employees such as cashiers can earn more than $40,000 a year after only four years on the job. Costco shares aren't a bargain at current levels, but patient investors could be rewarded because the company is an industry leader with top-notch management, a loyal customer base and solid growth prospects in the U.S. and abroad. In Street-speak, Costco may be "under-earning," meaning its profit margins are lower than they need to be. Management is loath to tinker with a successful formula, but margins probably have only one way to go: up. In time, the shares are likely to follow. This article was reported and written by Andrew Bary for Barron's


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