The China Bubble Thing

Guest post by: Paul Kedrosky
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Sorry, You Can’t Be My Online Friend - By Paul Kedrosky

These two factoids won't settle the debate as to whether China's stock markets are currently in a bubble, but I thought it was worth putting them out there -- one bullish, one bearish:

While the Shanghai Composite is up a fairly staggering 158% year-to-date -- and 188% over the last five years -- the five-year return works out to an annualized return of 13%. Granted, that isn't tiny, but it also isn't exactly daunting either. With profits doubling in many Chinese companies year-over-year, and with the the Shanghai Composite having been flat from 2002 to late 2006, it can, perhaps, be forgiven for a playing a little catch-up, can't it?
China Life, PetroChina Co., China Mobile Ltd., Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. are now in the list of the world's 10 biggest companies by market value. Only two of those are in the top 50 by sales.

To add to point 2, China stocks can learn from their dot-com counterparts. When you have a frothy stock valuation the way to make sure it doesn't end badly, or to at least make that less likely, is to buy things. Now.

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V. D. The Future of China-Africa Economic Relations: FACTORS INFLUENCING THE GROWING TIES

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II.a Merchandise Trade: TRADE AND CAPITAL FLOWS BETWEEN CHINA AND AFRICA

II.C. Other Debt-Creating Financial Flows: TRADE AND CAPITAL FLOWS BETWEEN CHINA AND AFRICA

II.D. Foreign Direct Investment: TRADE AND CAPITAL FLOWS BETWEEN CHINA AND AFRICA

Is it Time for You to Start Selling in China?

IV. A. Private Traders: THE ROLE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR

V. A. Markets for Exports: AID VS. COMMERCE: FACTORS INFLUENCING THE GROWING TIES

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III. C. Commercial Policies: THE ROLE OF CHINA’S PUBLIC SECTOR

Scary!

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About the Author: Paul Kedrosky

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Dr. Kedrosky is currently the Executive Director of the William J. von Liebig Center in San Diego, California. Using an innovative seed capital program, the Center catalyzes the commercialization of technologies from the internationally-ranked University of California, San Diego. Dr. Kedrosky is also a venture investor with Ventures West, Canada's largest institutional venture capital firm, where he is most active in consumer technologies and software. He is currently on the board of Marqui Corporation, a marketing automation software company.
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