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Bottom Line: This is Not the Bottom of the Financial Crisis

Written by: Donald J. Trump

Article Overview: Thomas Barrack Jr. is a friend of mine who happens to be a brilliant guy. We’ve partnered on ventures and he’s the CEO of Colony Capital. He’s been following the financial crisis and occasionally sends me his thoughts about what is going on. He makes such good sense that I’d like to quote a few paragraphs from what he sent me a few days ago:

Bottom Line: This is Not the Bottom of the Financial Crisis

Thomas Barrack Jr. is a friend of mine who happens to be a brilliant guy. We’ve partnered on ventures and he’s the CEO of Colony Capital. He’s been following the financial crisis and occasionally sends me his thoughts about what is going on. He makes such good sense that I’d like to quote a few paragraphs from what he sent me a few days ago:

Why Can’t Anybody Find the Bottom?

It all boils down to trust! The mantra of the country is “In God We Trust--but not counterparties.” No buyer trusts any seller, banker, insurer or intermediary. No investor trusts any depository, insurer, broker-dealer or advisor. No Main Street citizen trusts Wall Street, and neither Main Street or Wall Street trusts the government. No counterparty in any transaction has confidence in the other. Values at every level have been artificially adjusted and when the air comes out of the “speculative hope certificates” everyone is pointing fingers at each other for fault and retribution.

The Worst is in Front of Us

Counterparties are renegotiating, borrowers are violating covenants, banks are finding any excuse not to fund existing commitments, insurers are negating liability, and renegotiations of responsibility and liability are being conducted at every level of the capital structure across the spectrum of companies.

There is no bottom because no one believes the messenger. With trillions of dollars of re-pricing occurring in these markets there is no hurry to catch the falling knife. There will be ample time once that last “dead cat bounce” has bounced and the government launches a coherent and consistent program. For once it will be better to be late rather than early.

Bottom Line: This is Not the Bottom

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Article Tags: ample time, barrack, borrowers, bottom line, brilliant guy, broker dealer, capital structure, commitments, consistent program, counterparty, covenants, dead cat bounce, financial crisis, good sense, insurer, mantra, paragraphs, pointing fingers, retribution, trillions



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