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The Law of Unpredictability – Unless You Write Your Competitor’s Plans, You Can’t Predict the Future

Guest post by: Michael Farrell

Article Overview: Many marketing people include an assumption about the future in their marketing plans, suggests Mike Farrell with aspenIbiz. Read this short post as it explains that while many say America’s big problem is the lack of being able to take the long view, without an assumption about the future, it could be difficult to be successful in the world that includes the Law of Unpredictability.

The Law of Unpredictability – Unless You Write Your Competitor’s Plans, You Can’t Predict the Future

Most marketing plans make assumptions about the future.

Have you ever noticed that even with hundreds of computers and an army of meteorologists, no one can predict the weather more than three days in advance? So how do you expect anyone to predict what the market conditions will be like in one to three years?

Failure to forecast competitive reaction is a major reason for marketing failures. Yet there are those who would say that America's big problem is the lack of a long view and that American management is too short term in thinking. Without including a forecast of the future, in marketing plans, wouldn't things be even worse?

On the surface, those concerns are real. But it is important to understand what is meant by long terms versus short term. Most of corporate America's problems are not related to short-term marketing thinking; they are related to short-term financial thinking.

Most companies live from quarterly report to quarterly report. That is a receipt for problems. Companies that live by the numbers, die by the numbers.

For example, General Motors was doing fine until the financial folks took over and put the focus on the numbers instead of the brands. That allowed Alfred P. Sloan's plan of differentiated brands to fall apart. Every division head, in order to make their short-term numbers, started to chase the middle of the market. Over time, this approach contributed to the bankruptcy in 2009.

Good short-term planning is coming up with that angle or word that differentiates your product or company. You then setup a coherent long-term marketing direction that builds a program to maximize that idea or angle. It is not a long-term plan, it is a long-term direction.

For example, Tom Monaghan's short-term angle at Domino's Pizza was to come up with that home delivery idea and build a system that delivered pizzas quickly and efficiently. His long-term direction was to build the first nationwide home delivery chain as rapidly as possible.

Monaghan determined he could not own the words, home delivery, until he had enough franchises to afford national advertising. He accomplished both objectives and today Domino's is a multi-billion dollar company with a significant share of the home delivery business. Monaghan did it all without a complex, 10-year plan.

So what can you do? How can you best cope with unpredictability? While you can not predict the future, you can get a handle on trends, which is a way to take advantage of change.

One example is American's growing orientation toward good health and wellness. This is estimated to be The Next Trillion $ industry and it has barely gotten started.

However, the danger in working with trends is extrapolation. Many companies jump to conclusions about how far a trend will go. For example, if you believed the prognosticators of a few years ago, everyone today should be eating fish or chicken; however hamburger sales are still doing just fine.

Equally bad as extrapolating a trend is the common practice of assuming the future will be a replay of the present. When you assume that nothing will change, you are predicting the future just as surely as when you assume that something will change. Remember Murphy's Law, the unexpected always happens.

While tracking trends can be useful tool in dealing with the unpredictable future, market research can be more of a problem than a help. New ideas and concepts are almost impossible to measure. People do not know what they will do until they face an actual decision.

For online marketers, this is where keyword research is very helpful. By using keyword research tools, the online marketer is able to learn what ideas, concepts, trends, and products are in demand based on what people are searching for online. In addition, market profitability, and the amount of competition, can be determined based on good keyword analysis with the right keyword research tools.

One final note that is worth mentioning is that there is a difference between predicting the future and taking a chance on the future. Orville Redenbacher's Gourmet Popping Corn took a chance that people would pay twice as much for high-end popcorn. This was not a bad risk in today's affluent society.

No one can predict the future with any degree of certainty nor should they have marketing plans that try to predict the future unless they are writing the marketing plans of their competitors.

Marketing is a battle of ideas. If you are to succeed, you must describe your value and deliver sustainable results. Without capability, you had better have a low price; a very low price.

It takes a while but many Internet Marketing entrepreneurs learn the Law of Unpredictability. They learn to identify their target market with keyword research and keyword research tools as they know they can not guess what the market desires nor can they predict the future.

To accomplish this, they use various methods, tools, and follow a traffic formula to build relationships with their leads and customers. They build websites that create trust. They collect name and email addresses using an Optin form on a Landing Page. They use email systems with both auto-responders and broadcast capabilities in order to send messages to their leads and customers. These email messages frequently send information, provide knowledge, and occasionally promote an offering. Many Internet Marketing entrepreneurs learn that leads and customers do not like to be sold to however they will browse and shop. Over an extended period of time, skilled Internet Marketers are able to use hypnotic writing skills, in their marketing campaigns, to get leads and customers to take the action they want. This is how they learn to identify a target market, stay focused, and add value to their target market. They learn to leverage the equity in their list and be successful in the world that includes the Law of Unpredictability

It looks easy but marketing is not a game for amateurs. Marketing is not a battle of products. It is all about the strategy you use to benefit from the Law of Unpredictability as no one can predict the future with any degree of certainty.

You can find out more about Internet Marketing and home-based businesses by reading updates that will be posted at my blog over the next few weeks.

Finally, a great book to read is "The 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing" by Ries & Trout. It is the source of some of the material provided in this article.

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Article Tags: Affiliate Marketing, Internet Marketing, Mike Farrell aspenIbiz, Product Line Marketing, Target Market, Traffic Formula



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