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Why the Talent War is Dead and How Fast Training Accelerates Economic Growth
| Guest post by: Arupa Tesolin |
Article Overview: Arupa Tesolin examines how the myths of looming talent shortages during an economic recession can be compensated with fast-track Learning Paths
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Free Download - Would Your Business Pass The Passion Test? By Arupa Tesolin |
Why the Talent War is Dead and How Fast Training Accelerates Economic Growth
June 3, 2008 First published by C.M.A. Canada’s Management Magazine, Aug/Sept. 2008.
Changing times generate both new realities and myths. Among the myths is the descent of the full-on Battle for Talent, now downgraded in the least to a battle, at most to an over simplification of changing competitive labour and talent patterns. The original thought was that all global economies would have to compete for a diminishing supply of talent. While gaps, skills deficiencies and pressing needs undoubtedly exist, the big fear of talent shortages proposed by the experts and analysts have not materialized. This was the subject of a conference HR2007: The Battle for Talent Conference organized by the Conference Board of Canada.
A few years ago this same group had predicted talent shortages beginning in 2008. Recent developments have changed the picture such that no significant pressure is expected until 2011.
In September 2007 the conference board predicted shortfalls of more than 560,000 workers in every field by 2030.
Theories and statistics, while providing useful snapshots and predicting partial scenarios rarely tell the full true story. For instance, they don’t predict things like economic downturns, rising unemployment, increased competition for fewer “good” jobs, technology displacement of workers or the impact of developments like the creation of 600 engineering schools in China to provide a high grade talent pool for it’s growing domestic workforce. Other indicators drawn from a broader range of views support a different view of what is happening and what is coming up.
David Foot, eminent University of Toronto professor and author of the highly acclaimed best-seller “Boom, Bust and Echo” asked a brave question for a group with such deep-seated beliefs in the Talent Shortage issue that they created a 2-day national conference on the topic.
He asked simply “Is there really a labour shortage?” - a really good question when we consider ground floor realities existing beyond the grasp of economists and HR specialists who tend to only work within an existing work population.
Outside this, a fuller picture emerges, one that is within the grasp of grass-roots level understanding. Everyone knows there are young people with university degrees stuck in part-time work until age 30, educated immigrants still trying to get a foothold after 5-7 exasperating years, experienced 40 and 50-year old professionals who were displaced and never recovered, 40-year old teachers who never managed to come off the supply list, marketing people who used to have full-time jobs and now work from contract to contract, and so on. We all know who they are because they are our friends, family, neighbours, associates and former colleagues.
Compared to the workforce 20 or 30 years ago, today’s employment-challenged represent a sophisticated and highly educated group. Basic service jobs like dog-grooming, lawn-cutting and baby-sitting are now considered real careers. Laying ceramic tiles or taking an entry level position in hotel management people requires the completion of a 6-month or more college program. Some so-called career’s nowadays were dead-end low paying jobs yesterday.
So, here’s the reality according to David, who is so intelligent and grounded, I tend to believe everything he says. “Most of the baby boomers aren’t going for another 10-15 years.” The largest demographic group between the ages of 41-60 is 47 years old.
David qualifies this. “A Labour force shortage translated means a short supply of cheap workers. There is no labour market shortage. There may be a skill shortage.”
Skills we can fix. And in a short time too. Well before 2030, especially when they can be fixed by a 2-3 year training program or even better, fast-tracked to a Learning Path of several weeks or months duration. A Learning Path is defined as the sequence of training, practice, experience and anything else that leads to proficiency. This approach has been defined and optimized by Stephen Rosenbaum in a best-selling book called Learning Paths and his company Learning Paths International, the field leader in this topic.
In reality there isn’t anything that we can’t predict and train for long before a shortage could occur. This is a fact. As time goes on and learning approaches continue to evolve and change, this will get done more quickly and effectively than before. Therefore, no crisis really exists now or needs to in the future. The solution is to trade the Talent Gap for training.
Professor Foot went on to talk about our 6% employment rate, highest in the two most populated provinces Ontario & Quebec with 12,000 and 7500 people respectively, who together comprise two-thirds of Canada’s population. 40% of Canadians live in Ontario and the Ontario economy is and will be significantly affected by global change and U.S. economic conditions.
“There’s nothing natural” he says about a 6% employment rate.” This will not change until 2015. He proceeded to list the population growth prospects of other countries. Germany, one of the benchmark European economies, is showing 0 growth and negative growth. Russia’s population is expected to decrease from 150 to 141 million. Japan will decline also. In ten years Turkey will be the biggest country in Europe.
In Canada’s national employment base of 17 million, a 6% unemployment rate translates into over 1 million jobs. In March 2008 the federal government reported that 462,760 were receiving employment assistance benefits. This number represents only one out of 3 or 4 people who qualify to receive benefits and excludes those who have stopped looking.
Apparently not all is well on the employed job front either. Gabriel Bouchard, Vice-President and General Manager of Monster.ca advised that only 41% of employees consider themselves to be happily employed. The other 59% are actively looking for better jobs. Of the 41% who say they are loyal, one in four are “poised workers”; they’re happy but would leave for a better opportunity. To retain them employers need to provide better working conditions, recognize and reward employees and provide professional development that increase their market value and invest in their employer brand, which represents the sum of all experiences an employee will have with their company.
Martha McIver, Vice-President of Human Resources at Hewlett-Packard Canada, shared details of their internal career development process that provides internal opportunities so employees will look within the company first. She also highlighted several successful employee recognition approaches to increase employee engagement.
Programs like this pay off spectacularly. Committed employees are 20% more productive and 87% less likely to leave the company. A US Conference Board study found that increasing worker tenure by just one year could produce $40 million dollars in additional revenue.
Michael Palmer, Global Practice Leader for Ceridian Canada Ltd., characterizes the four generation span of today’s talent-force as follows: 16% mature, 26% boomer, 33% Generation Y, 22% Generation X.
Larry McDonald, president of Teamsters Union Local 938, which represents truck drivers, spoke about the importance to have strong partnerships with workers and investments in healthy workplaces and training as part of employer branding. Employees have witnessed so many buy-outs, mergers and acquisitions in recent years. He put the call to moral conscience bluntly “Never have so few gained so much on the backs of so many.”
The call is clear. The solutions are near. Let’s get working.
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About the Author: Arupa Tesolin RSS for Arupa's articles - Visit Arupa's website Click here to visit Arupa's website   Bob Proctors Got A Secret What it Means For Your Organization ELearning Whats Working Whats not Are You Having Fun At Work Yet Finally Meaningful Training Measures Workplace Education to Drive Canadas Talent Competitiveness |
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