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Leadership in the Age of Uncertainty

Written by: Sandy Blaha

Article Overview: It has been said that the only constant is change. In this age of uncertainty and volatility change can occur more rapidly than we’d wish. One way to take charge of an uncertain future is to make your strategic planning a highly focused activity. We show you how to identify patterns of uncertainty that will prepare you to respond more appropriately and how to engage others in recognizing those patterns.

Leadership in the Age of Uncertainty

It has been said that the only constant is change. In this age of uncertainty and volatility change can occur more rapidly than we’d wish. One way to take charge of an uncertain future is to make your strategic planning a highly focused activity.

Recent data compiled by Decision Strategies International’s survey of executives found that:

2/3’s had been surprised by at least three high impact events in the last five years
97% said their organization lacked an adequate early warning system
81% felt that their present organizational capacity for strategic vision is less than their future need
Typically, strategic planning includes determining opportunities and threats. Expanding opportunities and threats thinking to include scenario planning is the logical next step to staying nimble, mitigating risk and coping with the inevitable future crisis.

Roch Parayre, a fellow at the Aresty Institute of Executive Education at the Wharton School, offers the following tips to help you know when to use scenario planning.

If uncertainty is high relative to one’s ability to adjust
If too many costly surprises have occurred in the past
If insufficient new opportunities are perceived
If the quality of thinking is deemed to be too low
If your industry is experiencing significant change
If a common language is desired
If major differences of opinion exist, each having merit
In his February 26 presentation to Executive Forum in Denver, Roch offered the suggestion of keeping a scenario wall board to monitor the outside world.

Make a large bulletin board in a non public area of your company that is frequently trafficked by your team, such as your management team’s conference room or coffee area. Title header sheets of paper in columns across the board, Scenario A, Scenario B, Scenario C, Scenario D.

Scenario A – growth opportunities
Scenario B – as is, no change
Scenario C – economic changes
Scenario D – unexpected disruptions and challenges
Ask your team to watch for and post articles, news stories or data about each scenario under the appropriate column. On a quarterly basis, scan the patterns that are developing. Bring this information to your quarterly strategic planning discussions.

Roch also suggests that while viewing the patterns revealed on your scenario board, you also discuss questions such as:

Past— What have been our past blind spots, what is happening here now?

Present— What important signals might we be “rationalizing” away? What are your mavericks saying?

Future—What future surprises could hurt or help us? What emerging technologies will change the game?

To learn more about strategic planning save-the-date for Mastering the Rockfeller Habits, October 8 & 9 in Denver. You and your team will leave the session with a draft of your strategic plan and the discipline and clarity to achieve it.

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Article Tags: age of uncertainty, coffee area, costly surprises, decision strategies, disruptions, early warning system, economic changes, executive education, executive forum, growth opportunities, high impact, impact events, new opportunities, roch, scenario planning, strategic vision, title header, uncertain future, volatility, wharton school



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