Leadership in the Age of Uncertainty

It has been said that the only constant is change. In this age of uncertainty and volatility change can occur more rapidly than we’d wish. One way to take charge of an uncertain future is to make your strategic planning a highly focused activity.

Recent data compiled by Decision Strategies International’s survey of executives found that:

2/3’s had been surprised by at least three high impact events in the last five years 97% said their organization lacked an adequate early warning system 81% felt that their present organizational capacity for strategic vision is less than their future need Typically, strategic planning includes determining opportunities and threats. Expanding opportunities and threats thinking to include scenario planning is the logical next step to staying nimble, mitigating risk and coping with the inevitable future crisis.

Roch Parayre, a fellow at the Aresty Institute of Executive Education at the Wharton School, offers the following tips to help you know when to use scenario planning.

If uncertainty is high relative to one’s ability to adjust If too many costly surprises have occurred in the past If insufficient new opportunities are perceived If the quality of thinking is deemed to be too low If your industry is experiencing significant change If a common language is desired If major differences of opinion exist, each having merit In his February 26 presentation to Executive Forum in Denver, Roch offered the suggestion of keeping a scenario wall board to monitor the outside world.

Make a large bulletin board in a non public area of your company that is frequently trafficked by your team, such as your management team’s conference room or coffee area. Title header sheets of paper in columns across the board, Scenario A, Scenario B, Scenario C, Scenario D.

Scenario A – growth opportunities Scenario B – as is, no change Scenario C – economic changes Scenario D – unexpected disruptions and challenges Ask your team to watch for and post articles, news stories or data about each scenario under the appropriate column. On a quarterly basis, scan the patterns that are developing. Bring this information to your quarterly strategic planning discussions.

Roch also suggests that while viewing the patterns revealed on your scenario board, you also discuss questions such as:

Past— What have been our past blind spots, what is happening here now?

Present— What important signals might we be “rationalizing” away? What are your mavericks saying?

Future—What future surprises could hurt or help us? What emerging technologies will change the game?

To learn more about strategic planning save-the-date for Mastering the Rockfeller Habits, October 8 & 9 in Denver. You and your team will leave the session with a draft of your strategic plan and the discipline and clarity to achieve it.



Leadership in the Age of Uncertainty - To learn more about this author, visit Sandy Blaha's Website.

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