Bharatbook.com: Trend in credit and deposit growth and in-depth analysis of Indian Banking Sector

Peculiar characteristic of Indian banks unlike their western counterparts such as high share of household savings in deposits (57.4% of total deposits), adequate capitalisation, stricter regulations and lower leverage makes them less prone to financial crisis, as was seen in the western world in mid FY09.

The Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) in India have shown an impressive growth from FY04 to the mid of FY09. Total deposits, advances and net profit grew at CAGR of 19.6%, 27.4% and 20.2% respectively from FY03 to FY08. Banking sector recorded credit growth of 33.3% in FY05 which was highest in last 2 and half decades and credit growth in excess of 30% for three consecutive years from FY04 to FY07, which is best in the banking industry so far. Increase in economic activity and robust primary and secondary markets during this period have helped the banks to garner larger increase in their fee based incomes.

A significant improvement in recovering the NPAs, lowest ever increase in new NPAs combined with a sharp increase in gross advances for SCBs translated into the best asset quality ratio for banking sector in last two decades. Gross NPAs to gross advances ratio for SCBs decreased from the high of 14% in FY2000 to 2.3% in FY08.

With in the group of banks, foreign and private sector banks grew at higher rate than the industry from FY03 to FY08 primarily because of lower base effect and rapid expansion undertaken by these banks. In FY09, overall growth in credit and deposits was led by PSBs. However, growth of private and foreign banks was significantly lower in FY09 due to their high exposure to stressed sectors and problem at parent level for foreign banks.

Unsecured bank credit has risen over the years and stood at 23.3% of bank credit in FY08 as compared to just 10.9% in FY2000. Lending to sensitive sector has also grown at CAGR of 46.1% from FY05 to FY08. In the backdrop of the economic downturn, one of the Research feels that the excellent performance seen in last five years ended FY08 will be difficult to repeat in coming years.

The research team expects that with the downturn in the economy, credit and deposit growth will moderate in coming years. Credit growth will be led by spending on the infrastructure while retail credit will show a moderate growth. Margin pressures due to lag effect of rate cuts between interest rate on deposits and advances, lower treasury gains and core fee income and increasing in provisions for NPAs is likely to put pressure in the bottom line of the banks.

Going forward, PSBs' which are close to the required lower level of government stake and have concentrated presence in particular region are likely to consider its merger with other PSB as an important option if they want to sustain the growth seen in past.