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Don't Bet Your Business on the Numbers

Written by: Rebel Brown

Article Overview: Don't bet your business' future success just on the numbers. Numbers can't give you the gut feel that every executive, product owner and marketeer needs - especially if you're reinventing yourself and/or your company. Besides, as an old boss used to say, "Figures lie and liars figure".

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Don't Bet Your Business on the Numbers

I just spent some time with one of my clients. The goal was to identify the best target market profiles for a new product they are launching in the summer. The team argued in detail about the quantitative market data from a leading industry analyst -which was the biggest opportunity? I finally had to jump in and rain on their parade. I happen to know that the data came straight from their competitors -who made up whatever they wanted to look good in the survey.

Not exactly the best empirical fodder for your business decisions, now is it? We finally focused on the qualitative side of the equation, agreeing to markets that felt right in our collective 'gut' - but it was a battle. All because of those numbers.

My first boss used to shrug and say "'Figures lie and liars figure" whenever someone pointed to numbers that defied his intuition. He was usually right on.

The fact is that numbers alone are not enough input, in and of themselves, to power strategic decisions.Sure, numbers can give you guidance about the market at a very high level. Numbers do have their place.

But never ever forget - anyone with a calculator and motivation can spin numbers to prove anything they want them to. I can do it, you can do it, anyone can. That's why numbers are dangerous on their own.

Don't bet your business just on the numbers. Numbers can't give you the gut feel that every executive, product owner and marketeer needs - especially if you're reinventing yourself and/or your company.

You also have to follow your gut. You know what I'm talking about. It's the feeling that tells you a technology idea has legs, a story is going to sell, that a customer segment can and will buy your product. If you're like me - you'll know when you're on the right track. Regardless of the numbers.

You have to go test those gut assumptions. But I'll match my educated gut assumption against general quantitative market data anytime. Especially if I've chatted with a few of the right audience targets and they have responded well to whatever we're testing.

My clients always ask me why I recommend a course of action. Often I the right thing to do, based on my experience in similar circumstances. You can have that same gut feel - you just have to develop it.

Here are some ideas:

Still don't believe the power of gut feelings over numbers? Here's a case in point.

Take Apple, an old standby for showcasing the power of gut-level strategy. How big was the revenue potential for PCs in education when the Steve's founded Apple? Education is a large sector, but has always been known as the biggest discounting market of all - next to the government. No one intentionally targeted education as a key sector.

But the Steve's didn't rely on the numbers, or the 'knowns'.They saw an opportunity to seed the next generation of PC users with their Apples, and they took it. They ignored the numbers and trusted the art of intuition. They trusted their guts - and their innovation.

The rest is history.

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Home > Marketing > Rebel Brown > Dont Bet Your Business on the Numbers
Article Tags: assumption, assumptions, boss, business decisions, collective gut, customer segment, fodder, guidance, industry analyst, intuition, legs, level numbers, liars, market profiles, marketeer, motivation, quantitative market, strategic decisions, target market, technology idea

About the Author: Rebel Brown
RSS for Rebel's articles - Visit Rebel's website

For over twenty years, Rebel Brown has positioned and repositioned technology companies for high-velocity growth.  She’s recognized for her expertise in business and market strategy, corporate and product positioning and go-to-market launches.

Rebel’s best selling market strategy book, Defy Gravity, is a guide to creating Powerful Market Positions in today’s new economy.

Rebel has been featured in media including Forbes, Entrepreneur, Inc, Business Insider, Startup Nation, ChangeThis.com, First Business TV, Exceptional People and more.

Visit www.RebelBrown.com for Rebel's thought-provoking and informative videos and articles.


Click here to visit Rebel's website
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