Don't Bet Your Business on the Numbers

The team argued in detail about the quantitative market data from a leading industry analyst -which was the biggest opportunity? I finally had to jump in and rain on their parade. I happen to know that the data came straight from their competitors -who made up whatever they wanted to look good in the survey.

Not exactly the best empirical fodder for your business decisions, now is it? We finally focused on the qualitative side of the equation, agreeing to markets that felt right in our collective 'gut' - but it was a battle. All because of those numbers.

My first boss used to shrug and say "'Figures lie and liars figure" whenever someone pointed to numbers that defied his intuition. He was usually right on.

The fact is that numbers alone are not enough input, in and of themselves, to power strategic decisions.Sure, numbers can give you guidance about the market at a very high level. Numbers do have their place.

But never ever forget - anyone with a calculator and motivation can spin numbers to prove anything they want them to. I can do it, you can do it, anyone can. That's why numbers are dangerous on their own.

Don't bet your business just on the numbers. Numbers can't give you the gut feel that every executive, product owner and marketeer needs - especially if you're reinventing yourself and/or your company.

You also have to follow your gut. You know what I'm talking about. It's the feeling that tells you a technology idea has legs, a story is going to sell, that a customer segment can and will buy your product. If you're like me - you'll know when you're on the right track. Regardless of the numbers.

You have to go test those gut assumptions. But I'll match my educated gut assumption against general quantitative market data anytime. Especially if I've chatted with a few of the right audience targets and they have responded well to whatever we're testing.

My clients always ask me why I recommend a course of action. Often I the right thing to do, based on my experience in similar circumstances. You can have that same gut feel - you just have to develop it.

Here are some ideas:

• Spend time learning about your customers and the markets you serve. Subject matter expertise is the foundation for a good strong intuitive sense.

• Study history. I'm not talking about the history of war. I'm talking about the history of marketing in your industry - in all industries for that matter. By this stage of my career, I can tell you a secret. Today's strategies leverage lessons from yesterday's approaches. Over and over and over again. Don't repeat it, but learn from it and apply those lessons to today's situations. Note, I said 'apply' not 'repeat'. I always modernize and tailor past lessons to current experience.

• Think Without Boundaries. I'm a big believer in the "What If?" line of thinking, where no idea is bad, nothing is discarded. Get a few people together and brainstorm about your product, your market, your company. Play with big ideas, play with wild ideas. Think out of the box about what feels right. Include sales folks too - they often have a great gut feeling about their specific subject/market area.

• Test your assumptions in the real world. Whether based on your numbers or your gut - get out there and test with real people. Listen to what they think, for them to hand you opportunities you never thought of. Don't count up the 'for's' and 'against's' with little check marks. Listen to the qualitative information they give you that helps your intuition learn more about how your audience thinks.

• Trust yourself and what you know. The more experience you have, the more you just know what direction you should go.Trust yourself. Don't let the naysayers drive their agenda for something you know is wrong, or for an approach that is at best a compromise. Trust your gut, test in the market and then, if you need to, find the numbers to prove your point so the left-brains will hear you.

Still don't believe the power of gut feelings over numbers? Here's a case in point.

Take Apple, an old standby for showcasing the power of gut-level strategy. How big was the revenue potential for PCs in education when the Steve's founded Apple? Education is a large sector, but has always been known as the biggest discounting market of all - next to the government. No one intentionally targeted education as a key sector.

But the Steve's didn't rely on the numbers, or the 'knowns'.They saw an opportunity to seed the next generation of PC users with their Apples, and they took it. They ignored the numbers and trusted the art of intuition. They trusted their guts - and their innovation.

The rest is history.