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Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2011, Part I

Guest post by: Norman Birnbach

Article Overview: Birnbach Communications has been issuing annual predictions covering media and technology, going back a decade.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2011, Part I

Here is the first of our predictions for 2011:

* The battle between the iPad and the iPad Killers, the race for apps and the impact of tablet computing will be a main theme. In 2011, there will be lots of choices among tablets from other manufacturers, but the (soon-to-be-announced) iPad2 will give Apple the momentum to continue to dominate the market - even as other tablets offer videoconferencing and other features not available in the current iPad. Expect to see a lot of coverage about an "iPad killer," but also expect the iPad to remain king of the hill at year's end. In our app-enabled culture, part of the iPad's success in 2011 will be the availability and variety of its apps. Also expect to see much discussion about the battle of operating systems: iOS vs. Android because the Apple vs. Google makes a compelling story angle. The media will also look at the impact of tablet computing on how students learn while using tablets and how people spend time online - already there are indications that users spend more time on social media sites and less time on email. There will also be lots of stories about the impact on the PC market. (Anyone remember netbooks?)

* 2011 will be the year of app-based media subscriptions. Last year lots of publishers either rolled out or announced online subscription access fees. This year, publishers are rolling out apps for iPad and other tablets as well as e-readers to help them generate subscription revenue. One challenge for publishers and consumer alike: Justifying app subscriptions when current single-edition app access (at $3.99 per single-issue for Wired or $4,99 for each issue of Time) can cost significantly more than annual print subscriptions (e.g., $20 for Wired, $30 for Time). A second challenge: the lack of a standard subscription process -- each magazine seems to take a different approach. Early adapters seem to be willing to pay; the real question is the price point that the rest of the population will be willing to pay. This will succeed with the establishment of an app store for subscriptions (currently you can easily purchase single-issue subscriptions but that's not the case for annual subscriptions) that provide a common approach, the way iTunes does.

* The converging media phenomenon will gain momentum in 2011. With early generation gadgets on the market that combine TV and Internet, it's time to get rid of the old way of thinking about media. For example, we need a new term for video content that we're already accessing on devices that are not traditional TVs. Meanwhile, the same convergence will continue to impact how news is reported: Newspaper reporters, who once only filed print stories that appeared nearly 24 hours after the news hit, are not only going to continue to be filing stories in near-real time, but also they will be producing accompanying video. Meanwhile, broadcast reporters will post text versions of their segments on their websites. Radio stations will provide video on their websites to accompany the audio-only pieces already accompanied by text-based articles. This already started taking place in 2010, but expect more cross-channel news operations in 2011 and beyond.

* The rules for social media will continue to evolve - rapidly. This is a no-brainer, but important for companies that have not yet fully engaged with social media yet. Why? Because the rapid change presents an opportunity to jump in, and catch up quickly; after all, many companies are still taking social media baby steps.

While some still wonder if social media is the equivalent to CB radios in the 1970s, as a concept, social media will survive - and not just because people like playing Farmville and Mafia Wars on Facebook. That said, some of the platforms will rise and fall in favor. (We're talking about you, MySpace.) That's why companies need to pay attention to the changes so they are not caught off guard.

* Companies will be judged not just on the quality of their social media engagement, but on their frequency. Just as people assume a company has gone out of business or is in a downward spiral if it hasn't issued a release or otherwise updated its website in a matter of months, the same need for frequency holds true in social media. In 2011, people will now assume your organization has gone out of business or that you have left your job if you haven't posted or updated your blog or status in a month. To keep brands and images relevant, social media content needs to be a consistent drumbeat, rather than an occasional dribble of information.

* The press release will not die in 2011. Like Mark Twain, who commented on premature announcements of his passing, the reports of the death of the press release are greatly exaggerated. News embargoes may be dead but press releases are still relevant. Press releases are certainly not the only way to get out news, but they can still be effective in 2011 and provide value, if only by enabling organizations to post fresh evidence of corporate activity and providing search engine optimization (SEO) opportunities.

* Traditional media will move to stable, if fragile, footing as the economy recovers - but they can't relax. The worst may be behind them, based on the reduced number of traditional newspapers and magazines that have either shut down or shifted to an online-only business model in 2010 as compared to the prior two years. But the old ways of doing business won't survive the "new normal" because even with a recovery, media properties will never again see revenue at the 2007 pre-recession levels -- unless they innovate and find more ways to generate revenue aside from traditional ad sales. That means finding a way to charge for online content on the revenue side. That also means fewer staff and resources, perpetual deadlines and multichannel content.

* Live integrated real-time interactive multimedia events - we used to call those events "TV shows" - will become more common in 2011.

Producers will seek to combine active social media with passive viewing on one screen. You won't be limited to just voting for a contestant on a reality show, you can also comment on everything about the show. Hate Ryan Seacrest? Now you can let everyone know. The difference is that in 2010, you had to comment on Twitter or Facebook. In 2011, you'll be able to comment next to the action, and be able to interact with others on one screen as opposed to watching your TV and typing away on your computer. (Bravo has already embraced this approach, according to a Bloomberg BusinessWeek article, "For Bravo, One Screen Isn't Enough.")

* Hybrid will be the overused word of the year, followed by mashup and "curation."

The word "hybrid" is no longer relegated to plants or, more recently, cars. The continued popularity in the business world for cloud-based computing and virtualization -- and yes, we know: they're not the same thing - will also drive businesses to want to maintain some control of their data and processes onsite, in their own servers, leading to a hybrid approach, for example.

Mashups used to describe the combination of two songs (on "Glee") or two musical styles, but can be used to describe anything that combines elements of two different things.

As used in 2011, curation does not have anything to do with healing. Sometimes known as "digital curation," the term generally refers to the concept of a website that offers information selected and maintained by an actual human (who might be known as a curator if this were a museum), not by an algorithm. In newspaper circles, this person used to be called "editor."

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Article Tags: iPad, media, predictions, social media, trends



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