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Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2012

Guest post by: Norman Birnbach

Article Overview: We've been issuing annual predictions going back a decade now. Our goal is to help our clients more effectively understand and engage on topics of interest for social media. We will be rolling out our 2012 list of trends over the next two weeks. Here are the first few:

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2012

1. The desire to be connected 24/7 may change in 2012. You almost never have downtime anymore, and people are beginning to notice that’s not all good. Sure, if you are waiting in line at the post office or bank (something today’s kindergarteners won’t do by the time they hit college), you’ll be able to check email, play an app, text your friend, or make a call. But this lack of downtime may negatively impact our ability to concentrate and avoid distractions at work and at home. The recognition that we actually need to disconnect, that we need downtime, is likely to generate coverage this year. Already a handful of companies have limited email, both during the day and after hours – and we think more will join those ranks. We also think the concept of going on vacation without access to email or cell will become more of a status symbol because it now takes a lot of money to disconnect yourself from your regular workday.
2. We may be immersed in social media, but we’ll spend less time with actual people. So many people use social media sites – from Facebook, Google+, Twitter and LinkedIn, to Pinterest and Quora and more -- that people have less time to spend with their friends and family. We’re not sure if this will get much media coverage, but we’ve seen some books addressing the topic (like last year’s “Alone Together” by MIT Professor Sherry Turkle). We expect more attention will be paid as kids in schools face a new way to feel alienated.
3. Value will be king in 2012. Upscale consumers, suffering from frugal fatigue, have started spending again. But for the 99% of us -- a phrase that will be popular throughout 2012, due to the presidential election -- will continue to look for value. That bodes well for Groupon, LivingSocial and other sites offering discounts. However, some companies have complained that they’ve lost money on their promotions through Groupon, so a question in 2012 could well be: “Do group discounts actually generate a return for companies?” Expect two other questions this year: “Will Groupon turn out to be a good investment since its Nov. 2011 IPO at $20?” and “How many e-coupon sites do consumers want or need?”The desire to be connected 24/7 may change in 2012. You almost never have downtime anymore, and people are beginning to notice that's not all good. Sure, if you are waiting in line at the post office or bank (something today's kindergarteners won't do by the time they hit college), you'll be able to check email, play an app, text your friend, or make a call. But this lack of downtime may negatively impact our ability to concentrate and avoid distractions at work and at home. The recognition that we actually need to disconnect, that we need downtime, is likely to generate coverage this year. Already a handful of companies have limited email, both during the day and after hours - and we think more will join those ranks. We also think the concept of going on vacation without access to email or cell will become more of a status symbol because it now takes a lot of money to disconnect yourself from your regular workday.
   
   We may be immersed in social media, but we'll spend less time with actual people. So many people use social media sites - from Facebook, Google+, Twitter and LinkedIn, to Pinterest and Quora and more -- that people have less time to spend with their friends and family. We're not sure if this will get much media coverage, but we've seen some books addressing the topic (like last year's "Alone Together" by MIT Professor Sherry Turkle). We expect more attention will be paid as kids in schools face a new way to feel alienated.
   
   Value will be king in 2012. Upscale consumers, suffering from frugal fatigue, have started spending again. But for the 99% of us -- a phrase that will be popular throughout 2012, due to the presidential election -- will continue to look for value. That bodes well for Groupon, LivingSocial and other sites offering discounts. However, some companies have complained that they've lost money on their promotions through Groupon, so a question in 2012 could well be: "Do group discounts actually generate a return for companies?" Expect two other questions this year: "Will Groupon turn out to be a good investment since its Nov. 2011 IPO at $20?" and "How many e-coupon sites do consumers want or need?"
4. Shifting to more efficient light bulbs in 2012 will not cause the end of the world. Last year, there were a lot of published complaints about the fact that legislation signed by President Bush would replace the traditional 60-watt incandescent light bulb with more efficient compact fluorescent bulbs or LED fixtures. The New York Times and Wall St. Journal both ran stories about consumers stockpiling traditional 60-watt incandescent bulbs. Guess what: The deadline for shifting to more efficient bulbs came, and suddenly it became a non-story. We don’t expect there to be much coverage this year as people realize the alternatives do actually deliver decent white light. (Please note: we represent a manufacturer of sustainable architectural LED-based fixtures.)
5. Academic integrity will continue to be important to deal with cheating scandals. With many Americans unemployed or underemployed going back to school, we expect more will take online courses for convenience. But because of competition among job seekers, people will look for programs that ensure academic integrity of their tests – and those academic institutions will turn to technology to monitor tests to ensure there’s no cheating. As more school districts open up virtual academies for students K-12, expect that academic integrity will become important even at the elementary and junior high school levels.
6. The most overused phrase in 2012 could be: lean-back/lean-forward user experiences. Lean-back activities are those in which users passively access content, like watching TV. Lean-forward activities are those in which the user is actively engaged in consuming content, as when they’re searching for content on the Internet or via an app. Lean-back activities can last as long as it takes to watch a sitcom or movie, while the attention span for lean-forward activities tends to be much shorter. While useful, LB/LF leaves out one other way people now access content: standing in line, holding their smartphone in the position that Jerry Seinfield described as modified chipmunk: with hands chest high and head bent to check out their screen. Of course that amounts to the same thing: short attention spans. LB/LF is important as content developers look at how to best present their content. Also expect to hear a lot of about ultrabooks – PCs as sleek and thin as Macbooks. We expect that Post-PC will be a term we’ll hear a lot in 2012, given the exploding popularity of tablets, especially iPads.

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Article Tags: 2012, predictions, trends



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