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Why we are not entering a recession!!

Written by: Helen Dowling

Article Overview: I found it quite a struggle to decide which topic to write about in this week’s article as there are a couple of things that have really made my blood boil, but I decided in the end to write about this so-called ‘recession’ that the media would have us believe is just around the corner. One of the reasons I wanted to write about this subject is because I’ve had quite a few emails asking why I haven’t written an article on the current economic climate, so I thought I’d address it this week.

Why we are not entering a recession!!

I found it quite a struggle to decide which topic to write about in this week’s article as there are a couple of things that have really made my blood boil, but I decided in the end to write about this so-called ‘recession’ that the media would have us believe is just around the corner. One of the reasons I wanted to write about this subject is because I’ve had quite a few emails asking why I haven’t written an article on the current economic climate, so I thought I’d address it this week.

The main reason I haven’t written an article is quite simply because I don’t believe a ‘recession’ exists or even that we’re close to one. Before I have 1,001 emails back telling me why I’m wrong. Let me explain what I do think is out there.

I do think that we have a ‘credit crunch’ in that it’s more difficult to borrow money if you need to. Notice though that I said more difficult and not impossible. It is definitely possible to borrow money, but it might take longer and you may have to shop around a bit more to find the best deal.

I also do believe that some industries are having a bit of a hard time at the moment – like construction.

But mostly I believe that our wonderful media is doing a very good job of trying to talk us into a recession. Let’s face it they have a 24-hour media channel to fill not to mention countless newspapers and magazines. I know very well that if we write a press release on something negative in the economy, it’s almost guaranteed to get into the papers at the moment, but that doesn’t mean it’s real.

The effect of all of this is that I think people in general are a little bit more cautious on what they spend their money on. This doesn’t mean they don’t have any money – they most definitely do – it just means that they’re thinking twice before deciding whether or not to spend money on something.

Does this mean you should close the doors of your business and go out and get a job? Absolutely not!! The key to getting through this media driven frenzy is to stay really positive. As someone said to me once:

“If you think there will be a recession in your business, there definitely will be.”

In other words, stop listening to all the media talk, stay positive and believe that you will be successful this year. By simply adopting this attitude, we’ve already achieved our turnover from last year and are currently expanding (more news about our new member of our team next month).

Come on, you can do it too – but you must really believe that you can do well at the moment (not just a half-hearted agreement) or this positive attitude is not going to work for you. Stay positive and ignore all those people who do believe a recession is just around the corner.

I’d love to hear your stories of how well you’ve been doing too – send them over to me using the contact details in my profile.

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Article Tags: 24 hour, blood boil, countless newspapers, credit crunch, doors, economic climate, economy, frenzy, good job, hard time, little bit, magazines, money, press release, recession, struggle



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Re: Obama Wants Social Security for Illegals - [quote="Lucy Wu":2dlphfqu]I think America's biggest problem right now is clearly the recession, and that should be the main focus as of now.[/quote:2dlphfqu] I agree. Do you think President Elect Obama is doing or will do what is best in terms of beating this recession?
surviving an economic crisis - I'm moving to Idaho then I'm building a bunker and stockpiling 2 years worth of supplies. I'm buying a fishing rod, a hunting rifle and bunch of chickens to produce eggs... I like chickens because they don't care about recessions or depressions. OK... that may be Plan C - let's hope it doesn't get to that. So far, our business is doing well, we often target affluent markets and from our experience in the early 90's recession this worked well. BUT - what we're seeing this time around is not a simple recession. I think it could get bumpy. What type of businesses thrive in an economic downturn?
Re: Are Economic Recessions Good for Franchising? - All we can do is remain wide awake and pay attention to the ebb and flow. My strategy is to be prepared and go with the flow. There could be some rough times ahead... Interestingly, our business has remained strong. I believe it's because we're in such a tight little niche and we're well positioned to sign jobs nationwide, therefore we're not restricted to location. We also target affluent markets that have higher disposable incomes - this we do locally. Here are some Franchise Categories that could weather a good recession... Health and Personal Care Food services like Subway Debt Collection Tax Preparers & Advisors Any other recession proof franchise opps out there?
The Hidden Hand Effecting Your Bottom Line - If you are based outside the U.S and run an online business, you'll probably receive a lot of your payments in U.S dollars. When the recession hit I saw a lot of non-U.S business people boasting how they [u:20bfadx5]hadn't been effected by the recession[/u:20bfadx5], brushing off the recession as something that was not important. But they [u:20bfadx5]overlooked the hidden hand[/u:20bfadx5] effecting their profits. The currency markets which for non-U.S businesses paid in U.S dollars has masked the effect of the recession somewhat, and has an incredible effect on your overall profits. Looking at my profits over the past several months I can see fluctuations up and down. I may have a hard time attributing what is causing these fluctuations if I believed the recession didn't effect me because overall my earnings and traffic are up. But then I compare to the U.S - ££ exchange rate, and notice a [u:20bfadx5]strong correlation[/u:20bfadx5] with my profits. When the dollar is strong my profits are higher, and when it is weak they are weaker. It didn't account for all fluctuations but the effect was very strong. I know most people are aware that exchange rates effect their business, but I don't think people realize how strongly it's effects can be, and how closely related to the economy this is. So to say "the recession didn't effect me" because your profits went up can be [u:20bfadx5]very wrong[/u:20bfadx5]. The hidden hand of exchange rates could have improved your profits, and the exchange rates changed due to changes in the economy, i.e the recession. The recession has caused this fluctuation in exchange rate as people fled from the stock market into cash, and with the $$ being the biggest currency in the world, more people fled into the dollar, pushing up its value against other currencies. When the stock market bounced in March and people moved back into stocks and other investments, the dollar weakened. In addition I did see a overall drop in advertiser spend which wasn't just attributed to the dollar weakening after March. I attribute this to advertisers cutting back their budget in response to the economy, but given a change in mood and outlook in recent months this is now reversing and advertiser income is up despite a weaker dollar. So the recession has played a bigger role in my business than at first glance, so just because profits are up does not mean my business is not being thrown around by external economic factors. For this reason I've studied the economy, made a prediction on what is most likely to happen based on trusted sources with the strongest track record, and made a plan for that eventuality, and then also plans for less likely scenarios, so that my business can prosper in either situation. Instead of overlooking this hidden hand it is important to recognize it is there, and not accept it as a mystical force your business is a slave to, but something you can react to and plan for in order to take your business further.
Re: Obama Wants Social Security for Illegals - I think America's biggest problem right now is clearly the recession, and that should be the main focus as of now.


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