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Commodity ETF Updates
Written by: Sean HymanArticle Overview: Gold stocks are pulling back and precious metals continue to move with the overall market action. Will gold and silver break this relationship and start to move higher in the coming months? Tightening stops should be remain cautious. Crude oil is starting to come alive. Last week’s technical breakdown could provide us with a big move in the coming months.
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Commodity ETF Updates
Gold Stocks, Silver, Oil, Natural
Gas & SPX Peaking?
My Gold Stock Breakout Model
I use the chart to keep my big
picture trades on the right side of gold. I found that gold stocks tend to lead
the price of gold so watching this gold stock index on the monthly, weekly and
daily charts can provide me with short term tops and bottoms for trading gold
bullion, GLD or DGP exchange traded funds.
The monthly chart clearly shows the
rally in stocks has now sold back down to my resistance trend line. If we do
not get a rally this week in gold stocks, then I think we could see gold trade
sideways or down for several months.
GLD Gold ETF Trading Fund –
Newsletter
The daily gold bullion fund shows
the recent price action and what I think could happen in the coming weeks. In
the past couple days gold has moved to a short term support level where I think
we could see buyers step in.
We took some profits near the high
and continue to hold a core position until we have another technical breakdown
or new setup to add more to the position again.
SLV Silver ETF Trading Fund –
Newsletter
Silver is in the same boat as gold.
We have taken some profits and are still holding a core position with
protective stops in place just in case the market does head lower from here.
USO Crude Oil Trading Fund –
Newsletter
Crude oil started to bleed lower
last week as the price sliced through the multi month support trend line.
Volume shot up as stop orders get triggered on the way down. We finally have a
move outside of the pennant formation that has been in place for several
months. Now we can start looking for a low risk setup for trading crude oil
again.
UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund –
Newsletter
Natural gas has really come back to
life. I mentioned on September 2nd that natural gas (UNG) looked
like a buy between $9 - $9.50 and it has now rallied 25% since that point. But
we can see resistance is hovering over head between the $12 - $12.25.
I may send out a setup for a short
play if we get one but I feel the heavy sell off in August was the final wave
down, flushing out traders. Speculative traders seem to have moved into natural
gas and I think they will continue to buy it for some time. Pullbacks will be
sharp but most likely followed with more buying as we enter the cooler months
of the year.
SPX Index Trading – Active Trading
Partners
I thought that I would show a quick
picture of the SPX because it shows the psychology of traders and how it
repeats it's self over and over. The black and green waves are virtually the
same patterns.
I feel as though the market is ready
for a larger pullback than what we had in June/July but my focus will be to buy
in the oversold dips and lighten my positions in overbought conditions (scaling
in and out of positions) until the trend confirms it has reversed.
My Market Trading Newsletter
Conclusion:
Gold stocks are pulling back and
precious metals continue to move with the overall market action. I do feel that
gold and silver will break this relationship and start to move higher in the
coming months but until that happens I remain cautious with my positions
tightening my stops.
Crude oil is starting to come alive
and I am now looking for some low risk setups for energy related funds. Last
week’s technical breakdown could provide us with a big move in the coming
months.
Natural Gas continues to hold up but
is now trading near resistance. Depending how many spec traders there are still
lingering around (as most lost their shirts in the recent months), will dictate
how much higher natural gas will move. The 25-30% rally in the past month has
been very powerful and this could be just the beginning. I am now waiting for
another setup that could be a long or a short trade depending on what happens
next.
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