Employment (NFP) Report and the Effect on Markets
I have to admit last week, I was little skeptical about this stock market. I was thinking that when the un-employment numbers came out (next week) tomorrow we could see a big sell off in stocks. The stock market has been off the charts lately, and everyone is trying to figure out whether or not they are under invested in it.
Regardless of whether or not the unemployment numbers are off a little or come in better than expected the effect on this rally will be minimal. There maybe a little sell off, but the rally should continue.
A lot of people have tried to call this market and economy a "W", a "V" and an "M". I think for now it is an "IV" (pun intended) an "Inflationary V" This bull market started when "Big Ben" Bernanke made it clear that we are going to print our way out of it. We went from the "Greenspan Put", to the" Bernanke Printing Press Put" Whatever works right?
The bottom line is we are going to see growth in the third and fourth quarter of this year, and much of the fiscal stimulus has not kicked in yet, the monetary has kicked in.
What does this mean for stocks? Stock will continue to go higher probably through the 3rd quarter on asset allocation money and inflationary trades, and perhaps the end of the year.
How about the Dollar? The dollar will continue to weaken and only when we see rates rise perhaps we will see the dollar start to strengthen. Take our currency course and start trading in a demo today! Ready to trade live?
How about oil? Oil appears to have calmed down, but is still going up. Historically it has been said that copper has a PhD. In economics, but what about oil? Oil really has become a temperature gauge for the global economy and when it spikes up radically, the prices cool down because it knows it is not sustainable.
And the yield curve? This is pretty much all the banks have got going for them right now, and it is big. The banks have rallied this week and it should continue.
Employment NFP Report and the Effect on Markets - To learn more about this author, visit Sean Hyman's Website.
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John BrennanJohn Brennan Ed.D. Dr. Brennan is President of Interpersonal Development, LLC, a training and development firm. Interpersonal Development has provided sales training and coaching to more than 3,000 sales reps from over 100 companies. A native of Australia, Dr. Brennan received his doctorate from the University of Rochester. His dissertation researched the effectiveness of Behavioral Modeling Technology in training people in interpersonal skills. While he has spent most of his career designing or delivering training, he was also a Vice-President of Sales of a training and development franchise with operations in 25 markets. Dr. Brennan has designed and delivered sales training in North America, Asia, Europe, Australia and the Middle East. He has been a guest speaker at numerous national and regional professional conferences. When Microsoft wanted Best Practices articles on sales for their web site, they called Dr. Brennan. The results are at http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/FX011387391033.aspx His firm’s clients have included Volvo, The Prudential, Merrill Lynch, Eastman Kodak, Gannett, Equifax Europe, the Economist Group and countless small businesses. - Visit John Brennan's Website |
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