The Irony of “Risk” in the Markets
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Right now in the markets, there are essentially 2 trades: risk-taking and risk-averting. The risk-taking trade can be summarized as US dollar and Japanese yen down, bonds down, everything else up. Risk-averting is just the opposite. Oh sure, you get the occasional stock that goes down because of blatant corporate mismanagement, but overall stocks will go up if the dollar declines. With this in mind, it still amazes me that people talk about individual company fundamentals when analyzing stocks as if it matters. In reality, the only thing one really needs to look at is the strength of the US dollar.
The thing about analyzing currencies is that they do not trade in a vacuum, but rather in relation to one another. Think about it like a beauty contest, where the winner is not the most beautiful, but the most beautiful ON STAGE AT THAT TIME and compared to the others. One of my favorite sayings in regard to this market is from that great market prognosticator, Rodney Dangerfield; "If you want to look skinny, hang out with fat people!"
So let's compare two "hypothetical" currencies:
Currency A: This country's currency is very weak, yields almost no interest (ZIRP), its banks are questionable as to solvency, its economy is teetering on the brink of disaster, it is taking on debt like it's going out of style, and confidence is near an all-time low.
Currency B: This country was largely unaffected by the credit crisis and the Great Recession, just raised its benchmark interest rate 25bp to 3.25% and is about to go another 25bp higher, is currently worried about too fast a recovery and inflation, and appears to have its fiscal house in order.
So which currency is the greater "risk"?
Well if you said currency A, then you are WRONG! Or at least that's what the world markets tell us
In the above example, Currency A is the US dollar and Currency B is the Australian dollar.
So it sometimes seems comical that in order to avoid risk, you would sell a higher yielding currency from a financially sound country in favor of a declining wreck with no interest from the country with possibly the worst fiscal situation on the planet!
Yet that's how it goes. For now. But at what point does this decouple?
Obviously the US dollar benefits from its status as the world's reserve currency, but right now in my opinion it is one of the riskiest assets out there! Just because the US government has never defaulted on its debt obligations, doesn't mean it couldn't happen. After all, wasn't it the brain-trusts at the Investment Banks and in Washington who thought the sub-prime game could go on forever? This could be one of the biggest black swans ever conceived!
With the massive amount
of debt on its books right now, unless the FED can encourage hyper-inflation, the US may have a very hard time meeting its debt service. Why would anyone want to take on that risk? So as Bernanke et al keep interest rates extraordinarily low and the dollar continues to drop in value, I'd much rather hold the Aussie. Go ahead and call me a "risk-taker", I consider myself more of a risk averter.
But semantics aside, as long as fiat currencies still exist, then there is no reason why USD should benefit from the "flight to safety" trade. None.
So just because the US dollar is the medium of choice for oil, gold, and other commodities, doesn't mean that is always going to be the case. In reality, the US dollar is just that, a medium of exchange and not a holder of value.
Would you take an Australian dollar which you could park in an Australian 2-year note yielding 4.71% for your goods or services, or a US dollar which you could put in a 2-year note yielding 1.02%?
Yep, me too!
The Irony of Risk in the Markets - To learn more about this author, visit Sean Hyman's Website.
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Dianne CramptonDianne Crampton is North America's leading authority on team culture. She is an author and professional speaker and president of the leading team culture consultancy, TIGERS Success Series, Inc. Crampton has been helping CEO's and Executives connect their employees to their core values and goals for over 20 years using the trademarked TIGERS team culture process, which stands for trust, interdependence, genuineness, empathy, risk and success. To download a free white paper on behaviors that build strong teams and behaviors that will predictably tear them down or to subscribe to TIGES Free monthly e-newsleeter go here. Dianne's contribution to the 2010 Pfeiffer Consulting Journal (an imprint of John Wiley and Sons Publishers) entitled TIGERS Hearted Teams is available in November 2009. Her new book TIGERS Among Us: Winning Business Team Cultures And Why They Thrive, Three Creeks Publishing will release in March 2010. To receive publishing discounts, subscribe to the free TigerTracks Newsletter here. - Visit Dianne Crampton's Website |
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Michiel JonkerAs a Certified Information Systems Auditor, Michiel assists businesses in a professional capacity by evaluating the threats to their businesses. He acquired the necessary knowledge, skills, and techniques to minimize a business owner’s risk of business failure and to maximize his chances of high growth and success. He strongly believes that you CAN maximize your chances of business success, by implementing the business solution he has advocated for more than 12 years in your business plan and planning. Michiel has decided to share his experience with business owners by putting almost everything he knows in a business plan and survival guide (compiled in an e-book format) and written as a high growth SMB coaching course for SMB business owners, directors and managers - titled as the “Survival Kit for Small and Medium Businesses - Profit from your Business Risks!” According to Michiel, his goal was to add new techniques to a business owner’s business planning survival kit and instruct him or her in using these in the future - without any help from a consultant! For more information about the benefits of implementing profit protection planning in your business, please visit: http://www.business-around-the-globe.com - Visit Michiel Jonker's Website |
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