U.S. Dollar Forecast for 2009
Lately, I’ve been asked a lot about where I see the U.S. dollar going in 2009. So let address this for a moment.
Specifically, I think the dollar will gain against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY pair will rise) throughout 2009.
While formerly, the yen and dollar rose as the Dow crashed, you will notice that the yen is backing off quite a bit even as the Dow sits on its lows as of this writing. Yet the dollar still rises as the Dow falls.
Therefore, I think for the dollar/yen pair, the bias will be in the favor of the dollar and against the yen overall throughout 2009 no matter what the stock market does from here.
HOWEVER, when it comes to how the dollar does against most other currencies such as the Euro, Australian dollar, etc. it will very much hinge on how stocks hold up.
If the Dow breaks to fresh lows and holds below them, then it is likely that the dollar will continue its strength against these foreign currencies BUT if the Dow and other U.S. indices halt their slide and head higher overall from here, then I think risk aversion dies down and that will hurt the U.S. dollar and cause foreign currencies to rise up against it once again.
So right now, I’m bullish on the USD/JPY pair and even bullish on gold. However, stocks are on the fence right now. They can’t stay there forever. So we’ll have a break one way or the other, sooner rather than later.
Once we get a decisive breakout, then we have our new found direction on the dollar. Therefore, my focus will remain on being long (buying) the USD/JPY pair until stocks get off the fence and make a distinctive move to either side. Once this happens, then the trend will be in place for the dollar for the remainder of the year minimally.
US Dollar Forecast for 2009 - To learn more about this author, visit Sean Hyman's Website.
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Dianne CramptonDianne Crampton is an executive leadership coach, team culture consultant, author and president of TIGERS Success Series, Inc. Dianne has been helping CEO's and Executives connect their employees to their core values and goals for over 20 years using the trademarked TIGERS team culture process, which stands for trust, interdependence, genuineness, empathy, risk and success. To download a free white paper on behaviors that build strong teams and behaviors that will predictably tear them down go here. Dianne's contribution to the 2010 Pfeiffer Consulting Journal (an imprint of John Wiley and Sons Publishers) entitled TIGERS Hearted Teams is available in November 2009. Her new book TIGERS Among Us: 5 Winning Business Team Cultures And Why, Three Creeks Publishing will release in March 2010. To receive publishing discounts, subscribe to the free TigerTracks Newsletter here. - Visit Dianne Crampton's Website |
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Sean Hyman Video - Want to know what is in store for the U.S. dollar throughout 2009. Listen in and you will see what's in store by Sean Hyman
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