Blackjack or Roulette?

How many times have you heard that sales is a numbers game? From the time most of us start our selling careers we are told that as long as we make enough calls or knock on enough doors we’ll hit our goals. We’ve been convinced to play to sales game and regardless or how skilled or how knowledgeable we are, we are stuck with the “averages”.

I don’t know about you, but just doesn’t sound like fun to me. If I’m going to play a game I want some assurance that I can win. Not only that, but I’d like to consistently. I want to be able to predict my income with some accuracy and I don’t want to have to work like a dog to earn a decent living. I’d like to have time to enjoy the fruits of my labors. In the traditional numbers game, though, that doesn’t happen.

Let’s look at how the typical salesperson’s numbers go. The average closing percentage for salespeople is about 20%. That means, according to our numbers game, that we have to spend 100% of our time to get 20% of the results we desire. So if I want to make $200,000 and my average sale is $1000 I have to make 200 sales. That means I have to have 1000 appointments a year. Even if I work 5 days a week and take off just 2 weeks for vacation that means I need to have 4 appointments every single day I work. That’s a lot of work. And a lot of waste. I’ve wasted 4 out of every 5 prospects I’ve talked to. That’s a lot of people I can’t go back to soon so I have to spend time looking for a new batch. Not only that, but I’ve wasted my time on them. Since 4 out of 5 aren’t buying I’m wasting 80% of my time! I don’t know about you but I don’t want to waste that much time. That’s time I could be playing golf.

So, what’s the alternative? I agree that sales can be a numbers game problem is most people are the playing the wrong game, the wrong way.

Let’s use a little analogy to see where the average salesperson gets lost.

When you’re in Vegas or Atlantic City you’ll see two types of players in casinos- the professionals and the amateurs. The professionals are there to make money and they know exactly how they are going to do it. The vast majority of professionals play one game - blackjack (yeah, I know poker is popular, too, but it’s not the most popular). Why is that? It’s because of all the games, blackjack has the highest percentage odds of winning. The odds are right around 50%. That’s pretty good for gambling. And if you know how to “count” cards, the odds go up to 80%. Now those are great odds (and the whole reason the casinos don’t allow card counters at the tables).

The amateurs, on the other hand, play things like roulette. The thrill of the big pot is just too much for them to resist and they spin the wheel over and over hoping for a big win. The casinos count on that. They know the odds are less than 20% that you’ll win so they actively encourage you to get to the table and spin with the other suckers.

Salespeople do the same thing when they are prospecting. Professionals focus on a specific market and learn everything there is to know about it. They specialize and they aren’t distracted by the quick, small deals that will lead them off their path. They decide who has the highest likelihood of buying from them and they only prospect those people. They, in a sense, learn to play blackjack and count cards. Their closing ratios are in the 75-80% range because they prospect correctly in the first place. They know the rules and the odds of the game they are playing.

By contrast, amateurs go out knocking on each and every door, hoping for a winner. They are playing games they don’t know enough about and they hope they will be “lucky” enough to get the sales they need to make quota. They use a shotgun approach to prospecting, chasing every little piece of money that looks promising, hoping they’ll win enough of the time to stay in the game. They close about 20% of their prospects, if they are lucky, and work like crazy to find new prospects.

Think about the game you’re playing and how much you know about it? Are you going to beat the odds?


Blackjack or Roulette? - To learn more about this author, visit Laura Posey's Website.

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