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IT Technologies: Extinction in 5 to 10 Years?

Written by: Jon Hansen

Article Overview: Member Question: 1) Which IT technologies are going to stay in market for next 5-10 years and why? 2)Which IT technologies will be extinct in 5-10 years and why? I know, its difficult to predict what happen in ever changing IT field, but just wanna know what other people think about this issue. Naveen, Ifrastructure Specialist & Solutions Architect CHicago, U.S.

IT Technologies: Extinction in 5 to 10 Years?

Member Question:

1) Which IT technologies are going to stay in market for next 5-10 years and why?

2)Which IT technologies will be extinct in 5-10 years and why?

I know, its difficult to predict what happen in ever changing IT field, but just wanna know what other people think about this issue.

Naveen, Ifrastructure Specialist & Solutions Architect
CHicago, U.S.

My Response:

There are multiple elements to your question but inevitablly technology is largely irrelevant if the viability of the models upon which they are built is not sustainable.

In the realm of supply chain systems for example, Forrester's Navi Radjou linked the lack of flexibility with traditional methodologies to the inherent problems of enterprise-centric applications from vendors such as Oracle. The specific problem is that batch-based supply-chain tools “can’t support swift resolution of supply chain glitches.” The reason he gave is that “these apps need time to collect and synthesize data from multiple sources – even those unaffected by the exception at hand.”

Radjou’s conclusion that unlike “static, linear supply networks, the emergence of “adaptive supply networks” which will be powered by multi-partner processes that are event driven, real-world aware and self-regulating” coincides with a number of my preliminary findings.

In numerous articles, and white papers, I referred to the meta-enterprise application which can create “on-the-go” real-world metrics that can be reliably incorporated into all purchasing decisions on a real-time basis to the benefit of all stakeholders.

It is important not to confuse this with the widely touted Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) promoted by industry heavyweights such as Oracle (Project Fusion) and SAP (Safe Passage). The SOA promise is but a shadow of the real-time capabilities associated with the dynamically synchronized meta-enterprise application.

For a more detailed overview of the Metaprise concept, I have provided by way of the link below access to Part 7 of my 7 Part Dangerous Supply Chain Myths series.

If you would like to drill down even further into the actual differences between the various development models, I have also included a link to an article titled Similarity Heuristics, Iterative Methodologies and the Emergence of the Modern Supply Chain,as well as an excerpt from my newly released white paper, Time Series Analysis, Bayesian Inference and the Development of a Dynamic Supply Chain.

Even though I am referencing supply chains specifically, the same principles apply to all areas of development which is, the model ultimately determines the on-going viability of any technology. Using these as guidelines, you will be able to identify the "dinosaurs" from the rising future stars.

Reference Links:

Contact Author to obtain copies of the reference materials

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Article Tags: centric applications, chain tools, emergence, enterprise application, forrester, glitches, industry heavyweights, linear supply, metrics, navi, oracle project, project fusion, safe passage, service oriented architectures, specialist solutions, supply networks, swift resolution, time basis, traditional methodologies, viability



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