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What Recovery

Guest post by: Carl Moore

Article Overview: THE Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimate of GDP growth, and the pace of expansion was revised down again. Currently we are below the rate of population growth, which is to say that in per capita terms output continues to shrink. So how are things looking forward?

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What Recovery

The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in imports, an upturn in federal government spending, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and in exports and a downturn in private inventory investment.

Imports subtract from measured output, so falling imports made for faster growth—but still signaled a weakening domestic economy. Federal government spending was up slightly in the second quarter, but the net government contribution was still a drag, thanks to falling state and local spending. Moving forward, the federal government will join state and local governments in consistently subtracting from output. Private investment and consumption could make up the gap, but American confidence has been badly shaken by the debt-ceiling battle and financial market havoc.

Does a double-dip loom? It's a reasonable possibility. Much depends on what the Fed does for the remained of the year. However, it doesn't matter all that much. Growth too weak to generate net employment increases isn't meaningfully better than slow contraction. America is quite likely to get one or the other of those unpleasant alternatives in the second half of 2011.

The GDI figure is particularly interesting here, because it fits much more comfortably with available employment data. Job growth was relatively strong early in the year, and especially from February to April. That makes very little sense when stacked next to the 0.4% first quarter GDP number, and much more sense against the 2.5% GDI number.It's worth noting, however, that while the GDI figures are stronger than the GDP figures, they still point to a slowdown in economic activity as the year went on, and they still point to an economy performing well below potential in the second quarter.

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About the Author: Carl Moore
RSS for Carl's articles - Visit Carl's website

CFO Capital Partners is a group of seasoned business professionals that have come together to offer a variety of services suited to fit the needs of those seeking Corporate and Real Estate Capital. We act as Independent Business Transaction Intermediary serving both Buyers and Sellers, also specializing in the Mergers & Acquisitions of businesses in the mid-market arena, nationally and internationally. Business Transfers, Selling of Businesses, acting as Finders - all fall within our province. We also work with Cooperating Intermediary and Investment Bankers nationwide as well as in Latin America, Europe and Asia. Carl Moore/ Managing Director "We Bring Experience to the Meeting" CFO Capital Partners 437 FoxTract Rd., 1st Floor Bridgeport, NY 13030 O: 315.633.9081 * Efax: 775.248.6603 Carl@CFOCapitalPartners.com * www.CFOCapitalPartners.com Loan Programs for downloads Go To: http://www.cfocapitalpartners.com/ProjectFinancingPrograms.html

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