"Will Nasdaq end the year above 3,200? Will Amazon.com get bought by Wal-Mart? And which way is Google's stock headed?
Those are a few of the questions that Seattle-area venture capitalists and private equity investors pondered in my annual predictions column. So here is a look into the minds of five investors as they try to figure out where things are headed in 2006.
ANDY DALE, BUERK DALE VICTOR, SEATTLE:
Favorite investment sectors for 2006: Health and travel services that tap into the aging baby boomer population. "We are still pursuing the consumer and service sectors, probably a little bit more in traditional business as we have seen valuations for technology and Internet companies go up pretty dramatically recently."
Comeback company: Infospace.
Dying company: General Motors.
Nasdaq close on Dec. 29: 2425, up 10 percent.
Number of IPOs in the state: Six. "There are several venture-backed companies that are maturing to a point of having those options."
Will Google's stock increase or decrease (percentage): Decrease 25 percent. "I think they are going to have some blip related to either expanding too fast -- not able to keep up with their growth -- or at some point I think the competition is going to get to them."
Will venture capital investments increase or decrease: Increase. "It will be principally driven by the increase of new funds raised by people from California. California money will come back consistently."
Bold business prediction for 2006: Interest rates and inflation up 10 percent. Real estate peaks and oil goes down.
Super Bowl winner: Seattle Seahawks.
TOM HUSEBY, SEAPOINT VENTURES, BELLEVUE:
Favorite investment sectors for 2006: Mobile applications. "The fact that there is an active, always-on IP address in people's pocket or purses is becoming a hugely impactful thing in a bunch of investment areas."
Comeback company: Qpass. "If you had to look at a complete business cycle comeback, I have a hard time picking any candidate that is stronger than Qpass."
Dying company: "Any enterprise software company that is not rapidly moving towards software as a service or some reoccurring revenue model is going to be in trouble."
Nasdaq close on Dec. 29: 2,500, up 13 percent.
Number of IPOs in the state: Five. "I think it is going to be a better market."
Will Google's stock increase or decrease (percentage): Final close of $475, up 14 percent for the year. "I think the concept of a Google morphing into a network by backing metro-area networks will be viewed as an experiment that they don't follow up on."
Will venture capital investments increase or decrease: Increase. "I think we went through a very quiet period here in the Northwest. I think 2005 was abnormally low for some reason given what is happening in the economy."
Bold business prediction for 2006: "There is going to be a tremendous sorting out between content providers and infrastructure providers in the brave new digital world. Companies who have picked both will suffer for that indecision."
Super Bowl winner: Seattle Seahawks
T.J. McGILL, EVERGREEN PACIFIC PARTNERS, SEATTLE:
Favorite investment sectors for 2006: "We continue to like 'luxury' consumer products and services. The national and local housing market will slow in 2006, and consumer spending will follow it; however, the luxury sector of consumer spending will remain strong. Even in a sluggish economy, baby boomers continue to have significant disposable income and are willing to spend it on luxury goods. Additionally, we view functional foods and healthy foods as a rapidly growing category -- you are seeing the crossover in distribution of these products from traditional health foods stores into the grocery and club channels -- which will drive volume and dollar growth for this category. And you are also seeing some of the multinational consumer product companies entering the category -- a good sign."
Comeback company: Microsoft. "While the company does not need to 'come back,' the stock does. I think Microsoft stock will be up 30 percent in 2006. You have a company generating huge amounts of free cash, a server business growing at 20 percent year over year, a new operating system being launched this year, and a growing installed base of X-Box console owners who will continue to buy X-Box software -- which has great margins. Google can't own every part of the software business."
Dying company: Cutter & Buck. "I think the brand is getting tired, there have been a number of management changes and board struggles that have probably contributed to the company losing focus. It is tough to sustain a premium brand in that environment."
Nasdaq close on Dec. 29: 2,293, up 4 percent. "Who cares about the Nasdaq -- it's so 'new economy.' I like the S&P 500 and I think it will be up 6 percent in 2006. Not a very robust year, but better than Nasdaq."
Number of IPOs in the state: Four
Will Google's stock increase or decrease (percentage): Down 10 percent."