Want to be really hip?
Mention Gartners newly minted Hype Cycle.
Figure 1 - Ups, Downs of Hype Technologies follow a fairly predictable cycle from new idea to rousing interest to early acceptance to valleys of interest failure to widespread acceptance. It takes a tremendous amount of energy and effort to move technologies along the path to the point that it becomes widely accepted and commoditized. Source -- Gartner
So much more today than Chris Andersons Long Tail or Geoffrey Moores Chasm.
MBAs like the Hype Cycle because it lets them figure out what new idea theyre going to develop to make their gazillion dollars.
VCs (also MBAs) use the cycle because it tells them where they should be throwing their investors dollars.
Media folks like it because it gives them a hook for stories on whats hot, whats not and why companies fall on their faces.
But wait we forgot one ingredient?
Fortunately the CEA (Consumer Electronics Association) tracks that sort of thing and people simply do not overthrow known stuff for new stuff as quickly as we would like!
Figure 2 - Consumers vs Anticipation All of todays consumer technologies that are taken for granted took time more than manufacturers would like to go from early adopters to late majorities to laggards. The only technology that has come close to meeting the hype anticipation was DVD. You probably wont see that rapid acceptance again in your lifetime. Source -- CEA
Take cloud computing for example.
Its not one solution fits all even though were trying our darndest to make everyone fit into the cloud.
First there is corporate and consumer. Then there is boomer and Gen X, Gen Y.
Its true that todays workforce is mobile and needs to be connected anywhere, anytime.
The C-level and IT folks are trying to make us as productive as possible.
The line between our personal and professional lives have become so cloudy it is sometimes tough to figure out when your working day starts/begins and when your family/personal lifestyle takes over.
We operate in a 24/7 economy. Weve moved from a command and control hierarchy to a connect and collaborate global village business model.
Its a paradigm ready made for cloud computing.
But we agree with Gene Kranz I don't care about what anything was DESIGNED to do, I care about what it CAN do.
Cloud computing will take a llllloooonnngggg time to arrive!
There are little things P/L folks worry about like security compliance availability data integrity where the data is located.
True you already do a lot on Web 2.0 in the cloud. Youve got a Gmail and Yahoo Mail account. Yes you got photos on Flickr. Yep you put how-to videos on YouTube. Sure you take part in communities, forums, discussion groups, more.
Figure 3 - Youre Already There Working in the cloud isnt a dramatic leap for most people. We already use YouTube, MySpace, Flickr and other online sites and activities. Teens and Tweens spend considerable time in the cloud working, communicating, entertaining. The new ingredient is a netbook slimmed down to leverage these activities. Source Pew Interactive
But do you want to put your private business data up there?
If you work in Germany do you think officials want you storing your business data in Canada the US Mexico ?
Youre a DOD contractor. Think they would be happy to find you stored your documents, data in Shanghai New Delhi ?
As Pete Conrad said, Jim, you think it's too late for him to abort?
Its still a work in progress helluva work in progress.
There are some very reputable providers IBM, ATT, HP, Amazon, SalesForce, Sun, Google and a lot of dogs n cats.
Some things make sense.
If its non-mission-critical data or applications and its compromised or goes offline no big deal.
If its central or core to your business think its good for your career path to put it out there?
We understand the power, reach, potential and benefits of the Internet.
We understand a lot of its strengths and its weaknesses.
Theres nothing magic or ethereal about the Internet. It exists because of an awful lot of private companies.
Then came the applications companies followed by the Black Hatters and Doom 9ers.
Weve got a couple of different email addresses beyond our business one just dont know what they are because we never use them.
When were away from the office we want our content, our data, our information, our storage, our solutions.
Figure 4 - Relinquishing Value While you do a lot in the cloud, how much of your content are you willing to turn over and make broadly available to almost anyone with creative zeal in the cloud? Losing some school papers may not cause much concern. But losing personal/family photos, videos, private data that you dont want to lose or dont want widely distributed is a greater concern. That stuff needs to stay at home. Source Pew Interactive
We need that stuff available 99.99% of the time.
When we need to access that information or do that work we dont want to wonder out loud as Jack Swagert did Ken, there's an awful lot of condensation on these panels. What's the story of them shorting out?
SalesForce had a significant outage a few years ago.
Amazons S3 service had its outage.
So did Gmail.
Lets not even talk about Apples MobileMe!
If youre working in the cloud and it fails theres no one to call.
You dont say as Swigert did, So long, Earth. Catch you on the flip side.
Especially if youre tracking your stock portfolio and need to do some trades!
Sorry well stick with our cellphone and our notebook.
But cloud computing for the consumer has gotten so much hype that system manufacturers have jumped on board to rake in huge sales.
Figure 5 - Computing Delta While the worldwide potential for netbooks is overshadowed by notebook sales, it certainly hasnt stopped every computer ODM and OEM to announce their flavor of the cloud-enabled computer. Unplug the netbook from the Internet and youve got a nice light scratchpad. Source -- Intel
While analysts are forecasting great things for netbooks in a few years, Acer is more modest in their projections 10 million this year and 30 million next year.
That made Asus, Lenovo, HP, Dell, you name it salivate so theyre all rolling out super solutions with long battery life, little internal storage and light weight.
It may have slipped past your radar but Asus may have the best relationship approach.
They signed a deal with DoCoMo (one of Japans leading mobile telco providers) to sell bundles to consumers.
After all look at what you do online.
Figure 6 - So Much Connectivity Teens and Tweens almost literally live on line. They send/receive messages, exchange photos/music/videos, share documents and work collaboratively. For them being connected and working/playing in the cloud is almost the natural order of life. Source Pew Interactive
All of that stuff is meant to give folks more time online and rack up more minute sales for mobile telcos.
Its what Gen Xers, Gen Yers do so well!
Ask our son about the security issues and he just gives us this blank stare So?
Its just not a big issue with people who were raised on the Internet.
Ask him if hes worried about storing stuff in the cloud because there are times it can look less than friendly?
Figure 7 - The Real Cloud Were not really certain why when people refer to cloud computing they show images of nice fluffy things. Sure cloud computing can be as friendly as the clouds you see up above you. But they can also hide a universe of evil. Theres a ying and yang you need to watch close. Source NASA
Hes got photos, videos, music, stuff everywhere in the cloud because, well because the free service is there.
Actually hes not really a bad kid because no one reads the user agreements.
Facebook, Flickr, Google, YouTube, Linkup, all of the Web 2.0 cloud sites use very similar legal scapegoat wordage XYZ may delete or remove (without notice) any stuff at its sole discretion, for any reason or no reason.
We dont want to go looking for something and have Dr. Chuck say, Flight, we just lost Lovell!
We may use their storage from time to time but well be darned if it will be our main or our archive storage that will be at the office and at home!
When we want our data, our content, our stuff we want it!
Netbooks look like nice toys.
When theyre up and running and everything is connected they are cool.
When the stars arent in alignment theyre cute boat anchors!
Well stick with some cloud computing.
Figure 8 - Gentle Breezes Theres a time to work in the clouds and there are times to have your feet (and information) firmly planted on terra firma. After all, the fastest way to get from point A to point B is often through the atmosphere. But if someone seeds the clouds with bad stuff, its time to bring your content home. Source NY Times
But well do it with a notebook so we can play DVDs, power game, edit photos/videos, work on ppts, write articles, do stuff we actually get paid for anywhere/anytime.
Last think we want to hear is Ken Mattingly telling us, Umm... We'll just have to take that one at a time, Jack.
Charts , illustrations available by contacing email@example.com